BJP candidate Vasundhara Raje Scindia arrives at party office after her victory in Rajasthan Assembly elections, Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023.
Credit: PTI Photo
Jaipur: Amidst intense speculation about BJP’s next chief minister in Rajasthan, speculations are rife that former CM Vasundhara Raje may not be the party's choice this time.
Raje, who was initially ignored by the BJP top brass, was later accommodated into the campaign. The party leaders were asked to give her the due respect. Her supporters were also given tickets. At least 20-22 of them have now won.
Raje also campaigned extensively for many of her supporters. Pollsters say, there was speculation earlier that if BJP finds it difficult to scrape through, they would have to fall back on Raje’s manoeuvrings to cross the magic number. But now with 115 seats in its kitty teamed with support from many Independents, Raje may have just lost her bargaining chip for the top post.
Amidst the talks of Raje's strained relationship with Narendra Modi and Amit Shah since the days when Modi was the Gujarat CM, it is said that she considers herself as senior to them and is not someone willing to take orders.
“Whenever she has held the reins, she has ruled for herself and her coterie. She has been accused of corruption. Every time she has come to power, she has never been able to make BJP return to power. So the general feeling is that it is time to groom somebody else. Raje being a grassroots leader with a mass connect is an asset for BJP and has a long way to go in party,” confides a BJP source.
Highly placed sources in BJP say some of the constituencies, where the party lost, may have been the doings of members close to her, which is again something the party is closely watching.
Narayan Bareth, a senior political analyst says Raje may even be made the chief minister but her Cabinet would definitely be decided by the top brass in Delhi. She can rule but without her major lieutenants. That may be done keeping the 2024 general elections in mind. Although Raje has been offered to move to Delhi many times, she has refused.
What surprised many was that Raje held a presser hurriedly yesterday after BJP won the elections, thanking Modi, Shah and Nadda and their policies for the victory. She had not talked to the media during the campaign.
“This presser in a hurry was surprising, in what capacity did she do it? And what was her mandate to do it? It was as if she was staking a claim to the top post and an indication that she deserved it. She was not leading the campaign, and was not even projected as the CM face. Yet she did the groundwork. So in a way, it was not out of the way. But Modi and Shah probably deserve credit for the win more than her,” says Sunny Sebastian, senior political analyst and an author.
At least 30 BJP MLAs met Raje today at her residence. Nasirabad MLA Ramswaroop Lamba was vocal about making her the CM, reiterating that both Modi and Raje’s work and efforts have helped BJP to return to power.
Sunil Bhargava, head of BJP”s state policy and research wing told Deccan Herald that the top post in Rajasthan may be indirectly linked to the CM faces in MP and Chhattisgarh.
He says, “There are different caste combinations that have to be taken into account when deciding on a chief minister. If Chhattisgarh gets an OBC CM and MP gets a Rajput CM, there is a high probability that Rajasthan is likely to get a Dalit CM this time. And who else would be better than Arjun Ram Meghwal, who is from the Dalit weaver community. BJP has not had a Dalit CM in Rajasthan. Both their CMs Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Raje are from upper castes. Shekhawat was a Rajput and Raje is a Maratha married into the Jat royal family.”
Meghwal is a known face in Rajasthan. He is an MP from Bikaner and is also the Union Law and Parliamentary Affairs and Culture minister. A former bureaucrat, he has handled the state’s administrative machinery and knows it inside-out.
A simple person, who arrives in Parliament many a times on bicycle, he has been instrumental in mobilising Dalits, who form a major vote bank in the state with a population touching 17.5 per cent according to 2011 Census.
“His candidature would be practically and politically correct and has a high probability. BJP now has 12 states under it rule and each requires a different political management,” Bhargava adds.
Rajasthan has had a Dalit Congress CM Jagannath Pahadia from 1980 to 1981.
He elaborates that if both the CMs in MP and Chhattisgarh are from the upper castes, then there is a high chance that Rajasthan gets an OBC CM in the form of Balaknath.
“Don’t look at him as a seer. That is only a coincidence. His OBC category is important.”
The OBC population in Rajasthan is just over 50 per cent. And Congress, while promising a caste survey had also talked about raising the OBC quota 6 per cent from 21 per cent to 27 per cent.
Other probable CM names doing the rounds from upper castes are Union Jal Shakti minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Jaipur’s erstwhile princess Diya Kumari.
Political observers say Diya Kumari is young with no administrative experience. She may be made a minister and groomed. But Shekhawat does have a greater chance as he worked hard in the Jodhpur region, where BJP has won eight out of 10 seats.
He persuaded Ashok Gehlot’s close aide Rameshwar Dadhich, who has worked with him for four decades and also Congress’ Subhash Meel to join BJP. He also held rallies for Mahant Pratap Puri in Pokhran, who won by over 35000 votes. He is also said to be close to PM Modi.
State BJP president C P Joshi, who is also a contender, is said to have ruled himself out of the race. Although there is speculation about Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla, who hails from Kota, he is also said to have ruled himself out as he is doing well in the Parliament.
Rajendra Rathore, the Opposition leader of the outgoing Assembly, is now out of the race as he lost from his constituency Taranagar by over 10,000 votes.
Meanwhile, supporters of various leaders have started their campaigns on X with hashtags demanding CM posts for Raje, Meena’s influential leader Kirori Lal Meena and Baba Balaknath, which are now trending.