It is not just the fate of 6,944 candidates in 690 seats that will be known when the counting of votes in five states will be conducted on Thursday but also the future political course in the run-up to 2024 Lok Sabha elections as several parties are waiting with bated breath for the outcome.
The counting will begin in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur at 8 am and the initial trends will start pouring within an hour. The Election Commission has made elaborate arrangements for the fool-proof counting of votes.
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The results will be crucial for both the BJP and Congress as well as other regional parties like Samajwadi Party, AAP, Trinamool Congress, BSP and Akali Dal even as the exit polls gave cheers to only the BJP and the AAP. The immediate impact of the results will be on the Presidential elections in July and later on the course of Opposition unity.
For the BJP that rules all the states barring Punjab, losing even one state could be a dent.
The whole focus will be on who wins Uttar Pradesh – the road to Delhi passes through Lucknow, political pundits say – and whether how many seats the BJP would lose even in case it may win.
An impressive win in UP and beating anti-incumbency to retain power in Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur is predicted to be a difficult task for the BJP. But if it is a very narrow win in UP, it is also to be seen whether Adityanath will make way for a new Chief Minister.
Samajwadi Party is expected to perform better this time but only a final count of votes would say whether it has managed to oust the BJP. BSP, which once ruled the UP, will also be waiting for the results.
Though the exit polls have pushed it out of the picture, Congress is hoping for a miraculous performance in Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur. Barring a couple, none of the exit polls gives Congress an edge in any of these states.
A poor performance by Congress could further isolate it in the Opposition grouping and it could lose its pole position. It would also have an impact on the Congress leadership and the Gandhis may face the heat, giving more fillip to the G-23 or change seekers campaign.
Congress’ eyes will be majorly on Uttarakhand and Goa where it has deputed senior leaders like Bhupesh Baghel, P Chidambaram and D K Shivakumar for political management.
It hopes that the exit poll predictions of an AAP sweep in Punjab would not turn true, as it would have a huge impact on the leadership. If Congress is reduced to around 20-30 seats as predicted by some exit polls, it is to be seen whether Congress winners will be wooed by Amarinder Singh who had to quit as Chief Minister following the rebellion by Navjot Singh Sidhu that was aided by the central leadership.
A Congress win in Goa could not only have an impact on BJP but on Trinamool Congress’ national ambition too. At the same time, an AAP’s victory in Punjab could be problematic for both the Congress and the Akali Dal.
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