After his party colleagues including ministers confined themselves to their respective constituencies, Edappadi K Palaniswami shouldered the entire burden of campaigning for candidates from AIADMK and alliance partners by criss-crossing the state.
And when the results of the April 6 elections were declared, Palaniswami, who was considered a political lightweight when he assumed office as Chief Minister in 2017, reaped the benefits of his hard work by leading the AIADMK to its best performance in a losing election.
At 66 seats, the number scored by Palaniswami-led AIADMK is five more than what his mentor and predecessor J Jayalalithaa won when she lost power in 2006 to DMK which cobbled up a formidable alliance. A major part of AIADMK's campaign was handled by Palaniswami with even his deputy O Panneerselvam largely confining himself to his home constituency and nearby seats.
Fighting 10-year anti-incumbency, Palaniswami launched his campaign a full three months before the election date was announced much like his successor M K Stalin, hired a political consultant to advise him, and projected himself as a “humble farmer.”
Read: O Panneerselvam, the 'Man Friday' who scored another win
Of the 66, 29 seats came from Western Tamil Nadu which put its weight behind the AIADMK yet again—the party alliance won 33 of 50 seats in the region. Palaniswami hailing from the region and consolidation of his community, Gounder, behind the AIADMK could have also helped. In 2016, AIADMK had won 42 of the 50 seats, catapulting Jayalalithaa to power for a second consecutive term. The AIADMK did fare quite badly in other regions, especially in state capital Chennai where it lost all 16 seats to DMK and Congress.
The AIADMK will not just be a “strong” Opposition numerically in the 234-member assembly, Palaniswami has also delivered a body blow to party rebel T T V Dhinakaran whose AMMK not just performed badly but saw its vote share plunging from 5.25 per cent in 2019 to 2.47 per cent.
While the results would allow Palaniswami to consolidate himself in the AIADMK, the “strong performance” will also be bad news for V K Sasikala who might have hoped to play a role after the elections. However, Palaniswami will still have to face the challenge from O Panneerselvam, who had stood as Chief Minister for Jayalalithaa twice when she had to quit owing to court cases.
Also read: Palaniswami greets DMK chief M K Stalin
The first test for the AIADMK post-elections will be the election of its Legislature Party leader as both EPS and OPS have won the polls – they jointly run the party.
“Palaniswami might run the Legislative Party of the AIADMK as Panneerselvam would like to continue as the coordinator of the party. If EPS attempts to take over the party, he will face a tough challenge from OPS. I feel the dual leadership is the only way to keep the AIADMK flock united,” Prof. Ramu Manivannan, Head of Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, told DH.
Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh has a different take. “I think the AIADMK has to rally behind Palaniswami for it to be united. But Palaniswami might allow Panneerselvam to function as the ceremonial head of the AIADMK just to keep the Thevars happy,” he told DH. Thevars, the caste to which OPS belongs, are traditional supporters of the AIADMK much like the Gounders.
Both Panneerselvam and Palaniswami will have to ensure that there are no desertions from the party in the face of the defeat.