Caste and smaller outfits are expected to decide the winner in the last phase of polling in 54 seats in Uttar Pradesh, and the performance the BJP and Samajwadi Party, which have allied with such outfits, will decide who walks away with more seats.
The main electoral battle would be fought amongst the Apna Dal (AD), Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), Janvadi Party and the Nishad Party (NP), while the BJP and the SP would have a much smaller role to play in this phase.
AD, a 'Kurmi' outfit and an alliance partner of the BJP, which was led by Anupriya Patel, is contesting on around a dozen seats in the region, especially on the seats where 'Kurmi' voters are in good numbers. In the 2017 assembly polls, AD had won nine seats. 'Kurmis' form six per cent of the total electorate in the state.
Similarly, the Nishad Party, also an alliance partner of the BJP, which wielded influence over boatmen and fishermen community, is in the fray on around a dozen seats. The Nishad community members are in sizable strength on several seats in the region. In the 2017 polls, the NP had contested on its own and managed to win only one seat though the party had secured 3.58 per cent votes.
Similarly, the SBSP, which had contested eight seats in the 2017 assembly polls in alliance with the BJP, had emerged victorious in four seats. This time the party has joined hands with the SP and is contesting on 18 seats, especially where the 'Rajbhar' community votes are in large numbers. Although the 'Rajbhars' form only four per cent of the total electorate in the state, on some seats in the region, their numbers range between 80,000 to one lakh.
Although the Janvadi Party, which has also allied with the SP, is not in the fray, its leader Sanjay Chauhan had campaigned for the SP on seats where his community's voters are in good numbers.
"The winner will be decided by the smaller caste-based outfits... the success of the bigger political players will depend on the performance of these smaller parties," said Ravindra Nath Tripathi, a scribe based in Azamgarh.
The nine districts, which would go to the polls on Monday, include Varanasi, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Bhadohi, Mirzapur, Mau, Sonbhadra and Chandauli.
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