The sixth phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections where 43 seats in four districts will go to polls on Thursday will be a tough fight for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) as it will have to deal with a near four fold increase in BJP’s vote share in these constituencies in the last Lok Sabha elections.
Despite drawing a blank in the poll bound seats in the 2016 Assembly elections, the saffron party’s vote share shot up from 10.74% in the last Assembly elections to 40.85% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Polls will be held in the districts of North 24 Paraganas, North Dinajpur, Nadia and East Bardhaman in the fifth phase. More than 1 crore voters will decide the fate of 306 candidates in the fifth phase.
The TMC won 32 out of the 43 poll bound seats in the last Assembly elections and got 44.89% votes but its vote share was down to 42.58% in the Lok Sabha elections. The TMC led in 24 out of the 43 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in 19 seats. The Left Front and the Congress which respectively won four (27.53%) and seven ( 11.71%) seats in the last Assembly elections, failed to get a lead in any of the seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Left Front and the Congress contested as allies in the 2016 Assembly elections and separately in the last Lok Sabha elections.
Out of the 17 poll bound seats in the North 24 Paraganas district, the TMC won 13, Congress three and the CPI(M) one in the last Assembly elections. However, the tables turned in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP led in 10 seats and the TMC led in seven seats.
As for the nine poll-bound seats in North Dinajpur district, the TMC won 4, the CPI(M) one, Congress three, and the Forward Bloc won one seat in the last Assembly elections. However, the TMC led in five and the BJP led in four seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Out of the eight poll-bound seats in East Bardhaman district, the TMC won seven and the CPI(M) won one in the 2016 Assembly elections. But in the last Lok Sabha elections the TMC led in six and the BJP led in two of the seats.
The TMC won nine of out of the eight poll-bound seats in Nadia while the Congress won one in the last Assembly elections. However, the TMC led in six and the BJP in three seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The Matua community will play a key role in the several poll bound seats in North 24 Paraganas and Nadia. With a population of nearly 3 crore, the Matuas, Dalit Hindus, who came to West Bengal in large number from the erstwhile East Pakistan or modern day Bangladesh, are a formidable vote base for any party. While the BJP is trying to woo them with promise of citizenship under the CAA, the TMC is wooing them with government doles.
Total constituencies: 43
Total candidates: 306
Total voters: 1,04,09,948
Male voters: 53,42,702
Female voters: 50,66,990
Polling stations: 14,480