On October 17, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) that ruled Tamil Nadu for three decades will enter its golden jubilee year. The party floated by the legendary M G Ramachandran in 1972 to take on the then all-powerful DMK, especially his friend-turned-foe M Karunanidhi, is truly at crossroads.
Out of power after being at the helm for two successive terms and suffering a humiliating defeat in the just-concluded elections to rural local bodies in nine districts, the AIADMK may be facing its worst-ever crisis in 49 years of its existence.
The power struggle
The intense power struggle between Edappadi K Palaniswami and O Panneerselvam on who gets to control the party has dipped the morale of the cadre, to say the least.
Not to be left behind is their former boss V K Sasikala, who will visit the J Jayalalithaa memorial on Saturday after being confined to her residence in upscale T Nagar ever since her release from Parappana Agrahara prison early this year.
Her throwing the hat in the ring could make things worse for the AIADMK in the coming months at a time other parties are gearing up for the urban local body polls likely to be held by the end of 2021.
The defeat in local body polls
The latest election results – AIADMK won only two of the 140 district panchayat wards that went to polls -- should serve as a “wake-up call” for the party, which now faces a resurgent DMK under Chief Minister M K Stalin, political observers say.
AIADMK’s decimation at the hands of DMK in the local body elections comes just five months after it pulled off its best performance in a losing election by winning 66 of the total 234 seats in the April 6 Assembly polls despite facing a 10-year anti-incumbency.
Though the party has been waking up to one crisis after another since Jayalalithaa died in 2016, the glue called power kept the AIADMK together for about four-and-a-half years. However, the glue is now beginning to peel off with differences between EPS and OPS coming out in the open – they issue separate statements on public matters and rarely concur with each other, eventually hurting the party.
Also, the AIADMK now faces criticism of ceding the Opposition space to other “ambitious political parties” including its ally BJP, and watering down its core principle -- the anti-DMK stance that helped MGR, and Jayalalithaa scale several political heights.
Having been used to a singular, “strong and charismatic” leadership (read MGR and Jayalalithaa), AIADMK cadre and leaders are finding it difficult to work under a “dual leadership”, the political observers said, noting that influence of neither EPS nor OPS extends beyond their respective regions.
'AIADMK should find a leader who can bring order to the party'
Prof Ramu Manivannan, Head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, said the immediate challenge before the AIADMK is to find a leader who can bring in a “certain order” to the party by uniting all factions.
“The AIADMK now speaks in divisive voices. Separate statements by the leadership are breaking the combined voice and strength of the party. The AIADMK has always been run by a leader with complete control over the party. Having used to that kind of a set-up, the first challenge is to find a leader who can control everyone,” Prof. Manivannan told DH.
Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh concurs. “The biggest challenge for the AIADMK is burying all the differences and working towards consolidation of unity. For every leader and cadre, revisiting the tough battle fought by their mentors, especially Jayalalithaa, is the call of the hour,” he told DH.
'Anti-DMK is central to AIADMK's existence'
Not just internal dissensions, the AIADMK faces external challenges too with several parties now vying for the anti-DMK space. Instances of Panneerselvam and former ministers K A Sengottaiyan and Sellur K Raju openly praising the present government and its policies have also not gone down well with the AIADMK cadre, who has all along opposed the DMK.
“Anti-DMK is central to AIADMK’s existence and is part of the cadre’s political DNA. Statements by senior leaders praising the DMK leadership amount to watering down the very core principle on which the party was found. Practising political decency is fine, but only a strident anti-DMK stance will help the AIADMK as a political party,” a party veteran told DH.
The observers said the AIADMK must put its “house in order” if it is serious about keeping bipolar the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu – between the party and the DMK. To this, Singh said the current AIADMK leadership should first understand the psyche of its cadre and work on the ground to keep their morale up.
“Jayalalithaa would fight like a tigress even on a non-issue just to engage her cadres in constant political activism and win the admiration of the voter. Even when consigned to the Opposition benches in an electoral setback, she would use her charisma and stinging rhetoric to turn the tide in her favour through just a couple of months of pre-poll touring.
“Now that she is no longer there, the AIADMK leaders should walk the extra mile to keep themselves relevant and their party alive in the public reckoning,” Singh added.