During the campaigning for the 2022 Manipur Assembly polls, PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah heaped praise on Chief Minister Nongthombam Biren Singh.
Both said there were no economic blockades, the bane of the state, during Singh’s time and that violence by insurgents had declined. It was all due to Singh’s skills and the BJP's special concern for Manipur, they claimed.
“Give us another five years to take Manipur to the path of prosperity," Modi told Manipuris.
The BJP got what it wanted and the scruffy 62-year-old was back in the saddle for another term in the hot seat, this time with an absolute majority.
But the “path to prosperity” has remained elusive; instead, Manipur has veered off course and plunged into a cauldron of unending violence, as Meiteis and Kukis battle it out on the streets and the hills.
Over a hundred lives have been lost and thousands displaced since clashes erupted on May 3 over the issue of ST status for Meiteis, the majority community in the state. Ethnic fault lines have widened; distrust is at an all-time high. It doesn’t come as a surprise that several people are showing the red card to Singh, with Union minister RK Ranjan Singh saying "law and order has completely collapsed".
How did it all go haywire so soon for the ex-footballer and former editor?
Singh chose politics after quitting journalism as he is said to have nurtured political ambitions. And he made the right moves at the right time, joining the Congress, then the strongest party in the state, and establishing himself as then-CM Ibobi Singh's go-to man. It is here that he first earned the impression of a trouble-shooter, getting things done for Ibobi.
Then, he noticed the change in political winds with the arrival of Modi and jumped ship to the BJP in 2016. Next year, he helped the saffron party cobble together its first government in the Northeast with the help of the National People's Party and the Naga People's Front.
His ascent is a reflection of his political cunning.
When Singh, a Meitei, first became the CM, he reiterated that he would take everyone along. He tried to reach out to Kukis and Nagas with 'Go to the Hills', an initiative, some say, was one of the success stories of his term (Kukis contest this bit and argue this was mainly restricted to Naga hills).
Many within the BJP credited Biren's ability to take all communities on board as the reason why the party preferred him over other strong contenders after the 2022 polls.
So, it is ironic that he is now accused of failing to prevent the worst violence in the state's long and troubled history, raising questions about his sincerity.
A friend of Singh in Imphal, however, sniffed "politics" by his own party detractors to keep the state in turmoil for long, which would prompt the BJP high command to replace him.
"It is because of this politics, Singh's ability in handling crises, which he displayed under former CM Ibobi Singh (economic blockade in 2016) and in his first term as the CM, are not working this time," he said on the condition of anonymity.
When Singh joined the saffron party, many called him Manipur's Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Assam Chief Minister and provocateur who also led a similar dissidence against his former mentor and Congress CM Tarun Gogoi and later bolted to the BJP in 2015.
When asked about a comparison between the two, Singh's friend said that "Himanta is much more experienced as he served as a minister for many years under Gogoi and Sarbananda Sonowal before becoming the CM (2021)".
"Himanta is acceptable among all the communities in Assam, but Singh not so much among Kukis. But Singh seems to be intentionally supporting the causes of the Meiteis in order to keep his Meitei vote bank intact," he added.
The Kukis certainly feel this way. At least 10 Kuki MLAs, including seven belonging to the BJP, have openly demanded Singh's removal and the imposition of President's Rule.
Singh himself has repeatedly claimed that Kuki insurgents and drug smugglers based in Myanmar are involved in large-scale poppy cultivation in Manipur hills.
Biswanath Sinha, a Delhi-based columnist and a social sector leader with experience in Manipur, said although many are now calling for his ouster, Singh succeeded in bringing a "positive outlook" to Manipur in the past six years, mainly through the "Go to the Hills" programme and by ending the "economic blockades".
Sinha said the BJP is in a bind.
"In the polarised situation as it is today, it is impossible for BJP to appoint a non-Meitei chief minister," he said. "There is also no clear alternative to him among the BJP Meitei MLAs at present. Secondly, there is no clarity on whether the President’s Rule will not be imposed if he resigns. President's Rule is an unpopular option for the majority Meiteis, who historically have been at loggerheads with the Indian Army and Assam Rifles," Sinha told DH.
But Singh's respite, Sinha cautioned, would be temporary unless he demonstrates a more pluralistic approach towards tribals, especially Kukis.