Two days back, the BJP issued a veiled threat to the LJP chief Chirag Paswan that it would lodge a complaint with the Election Commission if the LJP used Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s photograph during the election rallies in Bihar.
The BJP’s logic was that those (read: LJP) leaders, who were not ready to accept Nitish Kumar as the NDA chief ministerial candidate, were actually not part of the BJP-led alliance and, as such, should desist from using PM’s photograph. The BJP also issued a stern warning to all those BJP rebels, who are now contesting as LJP candidates, that strong disciplinary action would be taken against them for going against party line.
All such threats issued by the BJP will now be passe, given the fast-changing political dynamics in the state following untimely demise of LJP patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan.
“In fact, the BJP, pulling out all the stops for Bihar polls, will now, in all probability, treat Chirag Paswan with kid gloves,” feel political experts.
“Paswan’s death may not influence the entire state poll but it is also an undeniable fact that he was one of the most towering Dalit leaders with a fan following through out the country. It is also true that Ram Vilas Paswan was a leader of Dushad community (Paswans) which comprises six per cent of the total 16 per cent Dalits and Mahadalits in Bihar,” averred veteran journalist Ashok Mishra.
“In most of the large Assembly segments, you will find 8,000 to 12,000 Paswans in every constituency who have always stood by the LJP. Following Ram Vilas’ death, it remains to be seen whether these loyal voters will repose their faith in the LJP headed by Chirag Paswan, who is more urbane and not rooted like his father, but can still connect well with his constituency through his oratorial skills,” Mishra, who has covered elections in Bihar since 1989, told Deccan Herald here on Friday.
Another political scientist from Jagjivan Ram Institute of Parliamentary Studies concurred: “The BJP is now unlikely to target Chirag. It will no more react adversely when the LJP chief will hit the campaign trail and attack Nitish Kumar during campaigning.... By the time polling takes place, the emotive issue of Paswan’s death will subside, but it will have certain influence in Paswan’s fiefdom - Vaishali, Samastipur and his birth place, Khagaria. In a fiercely-fought election, each seat matters. And if there is a swing of six per cent votes either way, it would change the entire equations. This is precisely why BJP will now treat Chirag with kid gloves,” the political commentator, refusing to be identified, told DH.
POLLS APART
Nov 2000: LJP formed.
Feb 2005 : LJP contested 178 seats. Won 29.
Oct-Nov 2005: Contested 203 seats. Won 10.
2010: LJP contested 75 seats. Won 2.
2015: Contested 40 seats. Won 3
2020: LJP to field its nominees against all the JD(U) candidates.