With the Election Commission announcing the Presidential poll schedule, the ruling BJP and the Opposition are now getting into deliberation mood, trying to guess the opponent’s choice, and decide their strategies.
There is speculation about several names from the BJP fold who could possibly be the candidate. These include Kerala Governor Arif Mohammed Khan, Karnataka Governor Thawarchand Gehlot, Jharkhand Governor Draupadi Murmu, Telangana Governor Tamilsai Soundararajan, Uttar Pradesh Governor Anandiben Patel, Union Minister Mukthar Abbas Naqvi, former Union Minister Jual Oram and former Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan.
While the BJP’s final decision will come after a meeting of its Parliamentary Board later this month, the Congress has started reaching out to Opposition parties. Sources said Congress president Sonia spoke to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Pawar and CPI(M) General Secretary Sitaram Yechury on the issue of fielding a “common candidate”. She is also learnt to have spoken to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin.
Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge has reached out to some of the Opposition floor leaders in Parliament. Kharge, sources said, has also been tasked to find out the mind of certain non-UPA parties like YSR Congress, TRS and BJD before top leaders get to the negotiation table.
Kharge said Congress president Sonia Gandhi has asked him to “think about a name for a candidate after talking to other parties”. Kharge, who is in Mumbai to coordinate Friday’s Rajya Sabha polls, said he met NCP chief Sharad Pawar and would be meeting Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray as well as DMK and Trinamool Congress leaders.
A non-Congress leader told DH that the joint candidate in all probability will be a “non-Congress” person. Another leader said the Congress should not insist on its own candidate even as a section in the Opposition expressed reservations about the Congress taking the lead role.
The Opposition is closely watching the moves of the BJP, which had sprung a surprise in 2017 by fielding the then Bihar Governor Kovind, prompting the Opposition to calibrate its strategy and field Meira Kumar instead of former Governor Gopalkrishna Gandhi, whom many in the Opposition were planning to field as a joint candidate.
The non-NDA parties are expecting that the BJP may choose either a tribal or a leader from the north-east or a south Indian to be the First Citizen of the country. In such a scenario, sources said, the Opposition would also have to look at its options and names.
Leaders in the Opposition told DH that there will be no consensus candidate and they would not let the Presidential polls go uncontested.
CPI Parliamentary Party leader Binoy Viswam said, “Kharge telephoned and consulted about a common candidate for the Presidential election. I told him that CPI would support a common candidate with secular credentials and progressive outlook. He replied that Sonia Gandhi and the Congress Party have the same position.”
According to the existing electoral college, a BJP nominee can get votes with a value of 5.39 lakh, including those from the TDP. At the same time, the non-NDA parties can garner only votes with a value of 4.47 lakh.
However, if the BJD and YSR Congress, who otherwise are friendly with the ruling NDA, with votes with a value of 75,136 along with the TDP decide to join hands with the non-NDA group, the election would get really interesting. Leaders, however, discount this possibility.
Opposition ranks are also worried about the choice of BJP. If a Maharashtrian or a Tamil is chosen, it will create trouble for UPA allies like Shiv Sena and DMK to vote against such a candidate. Sena had earlier voted in favour of UPA nominees while they were in the NDA.
The analysis of the electoral college also showed that the anti-NDA parties have more vote value among MLAs (2.78 lakh) than the BJP-led coalition (2.20 lakh). However in Parliament, it is reversed and the NDA has votes with a value of 3.16 lakh while their opponents have 1.7 lakh only.
While the NDA is not getting a single vote in Kerala, anti-NDA grouping will not get any votes in Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland. The anti-NDA forces are doing very well in the south while it is not faring bad in the north but the BJP-led combine is ahead. The northeast is another region, though the vote value is not very high, where the anti-NDA forces are doing well.