The BJP, which had been an insignificant player in electoral politics in Kerala till around a decade ago, has now emerged as a cause for concern for both the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPM-led ruling Left Democratic Front as the state heads to polls on April 6.
While the saffron party’s vote share in Kerala was just 6.03% in the 2011 Assembly polls, in all the elections that followed, the BJP-led NDA has been steadily increasing its vote share: 10.83% in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, 14.96% in the 2016 Assembly polls, and 15.64% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
In the 2016 Assembly polls, the lotus bloomed for the first time in the 140-member Kerala Assembly, with veteran BJP leader O Rajagopal winning from the Nemom constituency with a comfortable margin of over 8,600 votes. The saffron party had also put up an impressive fight, emerging in second place, in a couple of constituencies, including Manjeshwar in Kasargod, where the present BJP state president K Surendran lost by just 89 votes.
Five years down the line, the BJP is even talking about forming the government in Kerala, although that is much bluster and perhaps revealing of the party’s thinking – it has openly boasted that it would need to win only 35-40 seats to be able to form the government. It’s another matter that it is not hoping to win even half that number this election.
Rather, party insiders say, the key agenda is to keep Congress out of power in the state, which it can ensure if it can win even 10 seats. The BJP is looking for slow and steady growth, which indeed reflects in the party’s marginal and steady increase in vote share election after election. Hence the focus this time seems to be to bring to Kerala its national agenda of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat.’ The calculus is that if Congress is kept out of power this time, the party will break in the state and many of its key leaders will switch over to BJP. As party leader B Gopalakrishnan said recently, for BJP to grow, Congress has to be weakened.
The BJP is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy in Kerala -- consolidating Hindu vote by raising issues like the entry of women into Sabarimala, making inroads into minority community votes by proactively engaging in dialogue with them, bringing persons from minority communities into leadership, wooing veteran professionals from various fields, and using central funds to initiate development projects in the state.
Realising that Kerala has a 19% Christian population and 27% Muslims (2011 census) and that the party cannot win elections by keeping them away, BJP is making serious efforts to make inroads into the Christian vote banks that were hitherto considered as UDF vote banks.
A series of meetings have been initiated by the party leaders, right from Prime Minister Narendra Modi downwards, with the heads of prominent Christian churches, assuring them that they would help to amicably settle issues like the decades-long power tussle over some 1,200 churches between the prominent Jacobite and Orthodox factions of the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church; offering to field candidates as per the desire of the churches; and initiating discussions on grievances like central assistance and reservations to the minority communities.
These strategies seem to be working. The Jacobite faction has said it is open to supporting the BJP. Hectic last-minute talks were learnt to be happening between Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the church heads.
A split in the Christian vote banks in Kerala is quite obvious this time as the LDF is also trying to gain the support of the community by taking a positive approach towards certain grievances with regard to education and the economic backwardness of the community. The Kerala Congress (M) faction, led by Jose K Mani, which enjoys considerable support in the Christian belts of central Kerala, had recently shifted from the UDF to the LDF, and its effect was felt in the recent local body elections as the LDF gained in these belts.
Campaigns against ‘Love Jihad’ and Halal food culture at hotels are also being unleashed in the state, mainly by Sangh Parivar organisations. This is also considered an attempt to gain the support of the Christian community as some church heads had also raised concerns over girls from the community allegedly falling into ‘Love Jihad’ traps.
Meanwhile, the saffron party is also trying to shed its hardcore anti-Muslim tag in Kerala. Elevating a new entrant to the party from the Congress, A P Abdullahkutty, as national vice president is part of that strategy. Abdullahkutty, a two-time MP and MLA under the banner of CPM and Congress, is the BJP candidate for the upcoming by-poll to the Muslim-dominated Malappuram Lok Sabha seat.
Another key strategy of the BJP is to woo well-known persons from various professional fields, ‘Metro Man’ E Sreedharan being the biggest example. Retired High Court judges, IAS and IPS officers, film and TV celebrities and industrialists have joined the saffron party over the last few weeks, and many of them are expected to be fielded in the elections. Sreedharan was even projected as a Chief Minister candidate.
The party’s alliance with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), which represents the Hindu Ezhava community, is also attributing to the NDA’s growth in Kerala. The BDJS pooled 1.88% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Though the party was formed by Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), which represents the Ezhava community – 22% of Kerala’s population -- the leaderships of SNDP and BDJS, Vellappally Natesan and his son Thushar Vellappally respectively, did not enjoy the support of the entire community mainly due to various allegations they faced and their contradicting political leanings.
The BJP is also highlighting the development agenda with Amit Shah saying the BJP will make Kerala the No. 1 state in all sectors if it comes to power. Apart from major allocations for the state in the Union Budget, including Rs 65,000 crore for 1,100-kilometre national highway works, the Prime Minister had rolled out a slew of major infrastructure projects to the tune of Rs 10,000 crore in Kerala in the last few weeks, including the Rs 6,000 crore Propylene Derivative Petrochemical project at BPCL Kochi Refinery.
While the BJP is making a determined bid, groupism in the party is giving some cause for concern to the party leadership. The elevation of K Surendran as the state president as well as new entrants like Abdullahkutty as national vice president has not gone down well with some senior leaders. Even as they were given positions like state vice president, they are not much active. Senior woman leader Sobha Surendran had expressed her resentment openly and even kept away from party meetings for some time. Even now, her presence at party meetings is said to be merely for the sake of form due to pressure from the national leadership.
Going by the current trends, it is still uncertain whether the BJP will win a considerable number of seats. But it is certain to improve its vote share, which may probably hit the Congress rather than the CPM.