During the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign Jayalalithaa had countered the “This time Modi” campaign with her own one liner – “Neither Modi, nor Daddy (Karunanidhi), but vote for this Lady.” And her party went on to win 37 of the 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu, leaving just two for the NDA and none at all for the DMK Front.
That she could pitch herself as a prime ministerial candidate against the BJP proved Jayalalithaa’s hold on the electoral psyche of the Tamil voters.
Another reason was that even ardent BJP supporters in the state preferred voting for Jayalalithaa rather than for the BJP, as she had greater chances of defeating the DMK and she was not perceived to be as anti-Hindu as the DMK. So, rather than fritter away their votes to a weak and untested BJP, they plumped for Amma, as long as she was around.
But post-Jayalalithaa, with the AIADMK rapidly imploding in the internecine war among EPS, OPS, T T V and Sasikala, the BJP finally is able to eye those pro-Hindu anti-DMK votes that used to be the monopoly of the AIADMK. The AIADMK was the polar opposite of the DMK for five decades, but those contours are changing and are also visible.
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Firstly, the BJP is being taken more seriously rather than as a contender against the NOTA. The party could enter the state assembly with four MLAs after two decades. True, the alliance with the AIADMK helped, but winning seats in the state assembly gave confidence to the BJP to slug it out on its own in the urban local body elections in February 2022 and improve its vote share in towns and cities while mopping up a few seats to expand its footprint.
More importantly, the BJP has found itself a robust and articulate leader in former IPS officer K Annamalai, who has proved to be a surprise package.
While the AIADMK veterans like EPS and OPS were reluctant to punch holes in the DMK’s governance record, probably due to the corruption cases against their former ministerial colleagues, Annamalai swiftly became the voice of the opposition by launching one offensive after another against the Stalin government. He listed out the DMK’s unfulfilled election promises, exposed decisions that reeked of corruption and staunchly opposed the anti-Hindu posturing by the DMK and its allies.
Annamalai’s fluent oratory, complemented by solid data, had the DMK on the defensive and on occasions forced it to reverse some of its dubious decisions. So much so the crowds at his public meetings began swelling, clearly unnerving both the DMK and the AIADMK.
The DMK, so used to dubbing the BJP as a north Indian party dominated by Brahmins, found itself ranged against a similar dark skinned OBC and son of the soil with a track record in administration.
The AIADMK could only watch helplessly as Annamalai took on the freebie culture and the money for vote practised unashamedly by both the Kazhagams since 2006. That the AIADMK is now even looking to the BJP’s Delhi leadership to settle its leadership dispute could help the BJP emerge as the linchpin of the anti-DMK front ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP is putting together its own front that consists of smaller parties like the PMK, DMDK, TMC, Puthiya Tamizhagam and even T T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK. Bereft of a PM candidate and weakened by its internal squabbles, the AIADMK would then have to meekly join the BJP-led front. Such an arrangement would help the BJP move closer to its long-term plan of replacing the AIADMK as the polar opposite of the DMK in Tamil Nadu.
(The writer is a senior journalist based out of Chennai)