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Credit: Sajith Kumar
“Dharna diyo Kirori Lal, mukhyamantri ban gayo Bhajan Lal, (While Kirori Lal led the protests, chief ministership went to Bhajan Lal),” a young girl accosted Kirori Lal Meena, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s tribal leader in Rajasthan when he was campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls in the state.
As the BJP’s tally dropped below the halfway mark in the 18th Lok Sabha, Meena took responsibility for the BJP’s poor show in seven Lok Sabha constituencies he was assigned in Rajasthan. He resigned from the cabinet of Bhajan Lal Sharma, who was appointed chief minister after the BJP’s victory in the November-December 2023 state assembly elections.
Meena has been a maverick and a lone ranger in state politics. However, it is unlikely that the doctor-turned-politician would have crossed the line had the BJP returned to power with a full majority for a third consecutive term.
That’s the nature of politics. A weakened centre always emboldens satraps. With the support of its allies, the BJP remains saddled in the Delhi Durbar. Post-elections, however, the provincial power struggles within it are evident, especially in states where the ruling party failed to perform well.
In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP suffered maximum losses, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya has not minced words in underscoring the primacy of organization over government. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath cited a different set of reasons. has cited an entirely different set of reasons for the setback. Overconfidence and fake narratives spread by the Opposition, he said at the BJP state executive, did the party in.
While the organization mulls over the cause and effect of the UP debacle, Yogi has started preparing for the upcoming bye-polls in 10 assembly constituencies where his ability to deliver electoral dividends would be put to test.
In West Bengal, the rift between the old-timers and the ‘imports’ has intensified. Sukanta Majumdar, the state BJP chief and a union minister, dissociated the party from the Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari’s recent statement about the need to junk Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “sabka sath, sabka vikas” mantra.
In Himachal Pradesh, where Congress has managed to retain its majority in the legislative assembly after defections, BJP veteran and former chief minister, Prem Kumar Dhumal, has called to question the party’s tactics. The BJP “acted hastily”, said Dhumal, whose son Anurag was dropped from the Union Cabinet.
The pared strength in parliament has prompted the BJP’s ideological mentor, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, to speak its mind. In his first statement after the election results, Mohan Bhagwat, the RSS chief, advised that “the opposition should not be seen as an adversary”. Expressing concerns over protracted violence in BJP-ruled Manipur, he said that the issue must be dealt with urgently.
In the recent past, an RSS mouthpiece in Maharashtra has made no bones about the BJP’s decision to align with Ajit Pawar. The Sangh sympathizers have not shied away from admonishing BJP leaders on social media for trolling the critiques of the Union Budget.
“But at the end of the day, both BJP and RSS need each other. The Sangh will soon be celebrating its 75th Anniversary, and institutional support helps in the expansion of any organization,” a senior BJP MP said.
BJP chief J P Nadda is on an extension. He is in the union cabinet. His replacement – whenever it happens – may well indicate how the mentor and mentee smooth the edges.
The upcoming assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra may well define the course of BJP’s politics – both within and outside. In both states, the BJP has sought to step out of traditional alliances to forge new political and social coalitions.
In Haryana, Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, a former ally, has been vanquished in the LS polls as Congress made a strong comeback to share the spoils with the BJP.
In Maharashtra, the opposition has successfully knitted the Dalit, Muslim, and Maratha combination to inflict one of the worst defeats on the BJP in the last two decades. In Karnataka, BJP has had to overlook claims of two former CMs, Basavaraj Bommai and Jagadish Shettar, to accommodate its alliance partner H D Kumaraswamy with two portfolios in Modi 3.0 Union Cabinet. Veteran BJP leader and seven-times Bijapur MP Ramesh Jigajinagi has made no bones about being "deeply hurt" for not being picked for the union council.
If results in Uttar Pradesh are signs of a swing in the mood of voters, the temple run has run its course. The ruling party, now in power for a decade, is in search of new narratives for mass mobilization.