The appearance of a young Dalit leader, Chandrashekhar Azad, on the stage of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance, was reminiscent of the SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance of the 1993 assembly elections.
On Constitution Day, on November 26, Azad first shared the stage with RLD chief Chaudhary Jayant Singh in the Khatauli assembly segment of Muzaffarnagar. Later, Azad, the founder president of the Azad Samaj Party, shared the dais with Akhilesh Yadav at the invitation of SP veteran Azam Khan in Rampur.
Since the BSP wasn't contesting the three by-elections in UP - Rampur Sadar and Khatuali Assembly constituencies and Mainpuri parliamentary seat - it was thought that the Dalit votes would split or go to the BJP, the trend observed in the March 2022 Assembly elections in the state.
However, Azad's presence and support for the RLD proved decisive in the Khatauli assembly seat. He successfully wooed the Dalits and made the SP-RLD alliance formidable. RLD's Madan Bhaiyya wrested the seat from the BJP by a margin of 22,143 votes. Voters from the Jat, Gujjar, Muslim, and Dalit communities came together against the BJP.
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Has the Khatauli result made Azad a significant political player? Azad's low-decibel campaign in the western UP seat, home to a sizable Dalit population, proved effective. With Mayawati missing in action, Azad is emerging as the new Dalit leader, and the Khatauli win could enhance his bargaining power in the next general election.
However, Azad needs to learn lessons from his past mistakes, which showed his political immaturity. He entered politics with his newly formed party in the UP assembly in 2022. In his electoral debut, Azad, an activist turned politician, was seen as overly ambitious by the opposition parties keen to strike an alliance with him.
Congress insiders say Azad demanded 100 seats to contest the election, which the top brass of the grand old party did not accept. Later, he approached the SP, where he demanded 30 seats. The SP leadership also rejected his demand.
Political observers noted that Azad made a blunder by contesting its debut election on his own. Without objectively assessing the ground realities, Azad entered the election fray, and as a result, his party faced a massive defeat. Azad is now aligned with a coalition of the Jat-based RLD and the Yadav-Muslim-based SP. If an alliance does not fracture, it has the potential to change the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh.
After the by-election results were announced, Jayant Chaudhary said in an interview that Azad will be a part of his alliance in the 2024 general elections and the 2027 assembly elections. The coalition could upset the BJP's applecart, as the SP-BSP alliance did in 1993. After the 1992 demolition of Babri Masjid, SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP founder Kanshi Ram joined hands.
As a result of the formidable alliance of the OBC and SC-based parties, the BJP lost the assembly election despite the strong Hindutva wave. But the coalition broke up in a few years, and since then, the BJP has been taking advantage of the split of OBCs and SCs votes. However, the BSP formed a government in Lucknow in 2007, as did the SP in 2012.
But since ultra-Hindutva leader Narendra Modi got into national politics in 2014, the SP and BSP have weakened. With Modi's entry into national politics, non-Yadav OBCs also swung into the saffron fold. While many non-Jatav Dalits, including the Pasi community, have jumped aboard the BJP's ship, making it a formidable force. Even the SP-BSP alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections dented the BJP only a little but failed to stop its juggernaut.
Meanwhile, the inactivity of Mayawati, the BSP supremo, has weakened the Dalit movement. The persistent enfeebling of the BSP and Dalit movements worries Dalit thinkers. They are looking for new leadership and hope in Azad, who is politically weak but vocal on Dalit issues.
If his popularity, particularly in western UP, which has a sizeable population of Dalits, were to translate into votes, UP's political scenario could change. While Some older Jatavs still support the BSP, Azad's popularity among Dalit youths has been growing since he was an activist in his Bhim Army.
To challenge the BJP, Azad should accept that his Azad Samaj Party is new to the political arena and has a smaller support base than the SP and RLD. He can only reach more Dalits, who make up about 22 per cent of UP's population if he keeps working steadfastly for Dalit causes. A coalition of OBCs and Dalits on social justice issues would be the only way to stop the BJP's communal agenda. A persistent attack on the reservation might bring the two castes together.
At this time, Azad can raise his political stature, fill the vacuum in Dalit politics, and revive the Dalit movement. Azad can also significantly bring Dalits and OBCs onto the same platform in coordination with the SP.
(The author is a Lucknow-based journalist)