Election is a game of perception. It is true everywhere, but more so in Bengal where, as it did in Tripura, the BJP, long known as the ‘Hindu-Hindi heartland party’, is storming the bastion of the secular parties. Consequently, a great game of creating new perceptions has unfolded in Bengal.
Take this, for example. It has been noted in various poll surveys that the largest chunk of respondents still put their faith in Mamata Banerjee as far their choice of voting is considered; but, at the same time, the majority of them feel that the BJP will come to power! Poll surveys are, of course, not usually dependable indicators of the public mood. Still, this mismatch between the loyalty of the respondents and their perception of the probable winner is intriguing.
The question is why even some TMC supporters feel that the BJP is going to win. The single-most important factor in creating this perception is the constant outflow of MLAs, MPs and leaders, along with their followers, from the ruling party to the BJP.
The most damaging of these exits for the TMC were that of Suvendu Adhikari, who led the Nandigram movement at the ground level, and actor Mithun Chakraborty, who had distanced himself from the TMC as far back as in 2016.
Also read: It's BJP vs TMC in the battle of Bengal
But what has changed in Bengal to cause this exodus? To have a feel of the ground reality, or to understand the meteoric rise of the BJP in Bengal, the crucial factors of this election need to be identified. Keep in mind that just five years ago, in the 2016 Assembly election, the TMC won 211 Assembly seats out of 294 (i.e., 71.77% of the seats) with a 44.91% vote share, while the BJP got just three seats, with 10.16% votes. But in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, TMC won 22 out of 42 seats (just 52.38% of the seats) with a 43.3% vote share while the BJP’s vote share jumped four-fold (40.7%), enabling it to win 18 seats.
This rise of the BJP was at the cost of other opposition parties like the Left and the Congress, who have formed an alliance this time, along with a new party – the Indian Secular Front (ISF) led by a cleric, Abbas Siddique. It requires no rocket science to understand that further dissipation of the secular opposition in Bengal, or a slight reduction in the TMC’s vote, could well catapult the BJP to power. Mamata Banerjee is quite aware of the fact, and that is why she is now regularly appealing to the ‘leftist friends’ to vote for TMC to defeat BJP.
The identity factor
The emergence of identity politics in Bengal is perhaps the most interesting feature in this election. When Mandal and Kamandal politics started dominating North India, Bengal stayed an exception. The scenario has changed, thanks to the RSS’ effort of playing the OBC and Dalit/tribal cards.
It may sound contradictory that the RSS, which stands for polarisation of the Hindus, can divide them on caste lines.
Strangely, the social reality of Bengal gave the RSS a chance to combine Mandal and Kamandal. All chief ministers of Bengal since Independence have come from the upper castes (Brahmin, Vaidya [not to be confused with Vaishya] and Kayastha), who consist just about 10% of the population. So, in 2014, the RSS loaned the BJP a 51-year-old OBC (Sadgop) man, and a year later this man -- Dilip Ghosh -- was made the state BJP president. Ghosh is still holding the charge, and has overseen the BJP’s rise in Bengal.
Thanks to his somewhat rustic nature, Ghosh is not popular among the upper caste people who dominate Kolkata and its surroundings, and that is why the party has not named its choice for chief minister. But he is quite popular in rural Bengal, where a large section of the OBCs, and even Dalits and tribals, feel they should install a non-upper caste man to the throne. This unity of the OBCs, Dalits and tribals has been forged in many districts of Bengal by the RSS through their shakhas, ashrams and schools, all in the name of ‘Hindu unity’.
Again, among the Dalits, the Matuas have become one of the politically dominant factors. Ironically, it was Mamata who brought them to the forefront in 2011, when she wrested power from the Left. But, by promising to give them all citizenship certificates through the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act, which was opposed by the TMC), BJP has weaned away a large section of them. Incidentally, millions of Matuas have come to India since Partition and later the formation of Bangladesh.
Mamata has also damaged her prospect by raising the ‘outsider’ issue. A large section of the non-Bengali population in the state now feels that the BJP is the best bet for their security.
Abbas Siddiqui’s Emergence
Mamata can still fight back as the BJP cannot expect to get the support of the Muslims, who constitute 30% of the voters, in general. Muslims are a major factor in one-third of the constituencies. While the Congress is still vying for the Muslim vote in the districts of central-northern Bengal, the TMC’s monopoly over it in southern Bengal was intact till 2019. But the sudden rise of Abbas Siddiqui has made things uncertain.
Siddiqi is a cleric of Furfura Sharif, and is the founder of a religious organisation, Ahle Sunnatul Jamaat, that has lakhs of followers in southern Bengal. Though known as a fundamentalist, thanks to his belligerent rants, after joining hands with the Left-Congress combine, his newly formed party Indian Secular Front (ISF) has given tickets to non-Muslims as well. A recent meeting of the Left-Congress-ISF at Brigade Parade Maidan pulled quite a few lakhs of people, and about half of them came for Abbas Siddiqui. If he can convert a sizable section of his religious supporters to his voters, which is not an abstract possibility, he may damage TMC’s prospect irreparably.
Didi’s ‘Banglar meye’ counter
The saffron camp has further fortified its campaign with the ‘double engine’ theory. It simply refers to the idea that if the same party ruled both at the Centre and in the state, then West Bengal would enjoy rapid industrialisation and all-round development. Mamata Banerjee does not have many weapons to counter it, as in the last five years she has constantly been in a confrontation with the Centre and even denied the people of Bengal benefits of some central schemes. She has, of course, launched similar state government schemes, but the success of those has somewhat been marred by corruption at the lower levels of her party cadre.
So, Didi now has just two planks to appeal on: anti-BJPism, and her own image of a ‘fighter’ who is sincere about serving the people. Though the rise of her nephew Abhishek Banerjee has dented her party’s image, she is still the most credible face among Bengal’s voters.
That is why her party is appealing to the people to vote for Banglar meye (Bengal’s daughter). Whether this will be enough to stop the BJP juggernaut, we will know on May 2.
(The writer is a Kolkata-based journalist)