The BJP may win 20 and Congress 11 in the upcoming elections to the Rajya Sabha to be held on June 10 with a number of aspirants in the main opposition party, including G-23 leaders like Ghulam Nabi Azad and Anand Sharma, vying for the ticket.
The Rajya Sabha term of Union Ministers Nirmala Sitharaman, who represents Karnataka and Mukthar Abbas Naqvi, who was elected last time from Jharkhand, are also ending and will be renominated by the BJP.
An analysis of the strength of parties in state Assemblies, whose MLAs are the voters, showed that BJP is likely to win around 20 seats from 15 states where the polls are being held. At present, of the 55 seats going to polls, the saffron party has 20 sitting seats.
While the BJP is losing seats in Andhra, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Jharkhand, it managed to lessen its losses through its impressive performance in Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. In UP, the BJP has four sitting seats but it has enough strength to emerge victorious in eight of the 11 seats going to polls.
Congress, which has eight sitting seats, is likely to win at least 11 seats and take its tally once again above 30-mark. Its major gain is in Rajasthan where it is likely to win three out of four seats, which are BJP sitting seats.
From the Congress, former Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Rajya Sabha Chief Whip Jairam Ramesh are likely to be renominated. Chidambaram, who represents Maharashtra, may move to Tamil Nadu to fight elections while Ramesh is likely to get a renomination from Karnataka.
However, all eyes are on the Congress leadership’s decision on Azad and Sharma, who had spearheaded the G-23 or change seekers. It is speculated that Azad may be fielded from either Maharashtra or Rajasthan while senior leader Bhupinder Hooda is rooting for Sharma’s candidacy from Haryana.
Senior leaders like Ajay Maken and Randeep Surjewala, who are known to be close to Rahul Gandhi, as well as Mukul Wasnik and Rajiv Shukla are also in the fray for the ticket but the central leadership has not opened up its mind on candidacy.
Congress lone Rajya Sabha MP from Uttar Pradesh Kapil Sibal has quit the party and this time is fighting the election as an independent with the support of Samajwadi Party.
Rajya Sabha elections and sitting seats
Uttar Pradesh (11)
BJP – 4
SP – 3
BSP – 2
Congress – 1
(BJP may win 8, SP 1 and with SP support RLD 1 and Independent 1)
Tamil Nadu (6)
AIADMK – 4
DMK – 2
(AIADMK may win 2, DMK 3 and Congress 1)
Maharashtra (6)
Congress – 1
NCP – 1
Shiv Sena – 1
BJP – 3
(BJP and Sena may win 2 each, NCP and Congress 1 each)
Rajasthan (4)
BJP – 4
(BJP may win one, Congress may win 3)
Andhra Pradesh (4)
BJP – 3
YSR Congress – 1
(YSR Congress likely to win all seats)
Karnataka (4)
BJP – 2
Congress – 2
(BJP may win 3, Congress may win 1)
Odisha (3)
BJD – 3
(BJD may win 3)
Madhya Pradesh (3)
BJP – 1
Congress – 2
(BJP likely to win 2 and Congress 1)
Telangana (2)
TRS – 2
(TRS likely to win 2)
Chhattisgarh (2)
BJP – 1
Congress – 1
(Congress may win 2)
Punjab (2)
Congress – 1
Akali Dal – 1
(AAP to win 2 seats)
Jharkhand (2)
BJP 2
(JMM/Congress and BJP may win one each)
Haryana (2)
BJP –1
Ind – 1
(BJP and Congress likely to win one each)
Uttarakhand (1)
Congress – 1
(BJP to win 1)