Months after Congress lost Madhya Pradesh, a political thriller is being played out in Rajasthan where Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his deputy Sachin Pilot are fighting a battle for political supremacy. Tension has been brewing in the Rajasthan Congress since Gehlot assumed the chair of Chief Minister with the central leadership giving the handle of power to the veteran leader. Pilot now openly rebels and claims the support of 30 MLAs and believes Gehlot is leading a minority government. Gehlot, on the other hand, played swiftly, calling a meeting of Congress Legislature Party and claiming the presence of 104 of the 107 Congress MLAs in the meeting. DH's Shemin Joy spoke to veteran journalist Rasheed Kidwai, a specialist of Congress politics and author of authoritative books on the party, about the political crisis and what could be in store.
Q. Congress lost Madhya Pradesh only months ago. Now, there is a war of attrition in Rajasthan. How do you view this?
A. I think it is a combination of realpolitik and leadership issues. Let us not forget that Jyotiraditya Scindia has left the party. Possibly, Sachin Pilot may go ahead with breaking with the Congress and joining hands with the BJP. This shows that the investment the party made in these young leaders is not paying dividends. They became MPs soon after the death of their fathers. In Pilot's case, he was only 24 years old when his father Rajesh Pilot died and was not eligible to fight an election. So his mother fought the election and won. He followed his mother and was later rewarded with posts and positions.
Obviously, he is feeling suffocated now. What the Gandhi family did was that they forced two unhappy people into a marriage in Rajasthan. It was not a secret that Gehlot and Pilot do not get along. But both were made to compromise. It has now taken an ugly turn. This also tells you about the failure of a Chief Minister to carry his No 2 or the Council of Ministers along and the restlessness of a promising young leader. The leaders see the appointment of their loyalists in key positions as a matter of prestige. It becomes a prime reason for confrontation. Scindia had problems with (former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister) Kamal Nath, regarding Gwalior-Chambal region. Then there is the 2019 Lok Sabha election defeat, which had a psychological impact on average Congressmen. Scindia lost. Even Rahul Gandhi lost in Amethi. Then there was the complete decimation of the Congress in Rajasthan in Lok Sabha polls. This happened a year after the 2018 Rajasthan Assembly elections when they won nearly 100 seats. This loss had a psychological impact on these people. They started thinking that they are no match for Narendra Modi. More importantly, then you will not blame Modi for it. Then you will start thinking because of Rahul, we lost. Because, the election became Rahul versus Modi. As long as there is an election in which it is Rahul versus Modi, then the Congress will not win. So this kind of narrative has caught on. So, these leaders who are decorated and rewarded started looking for greener pastures outside.
Q. There is an argument that Sachin Pilot steered the party to 100 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections. But the Congress has done injustice to him. Do you agree with such a proposition?
A. See, this is a loaded proposition. In Parliamentary democracy, the cardinal principle is that the newly elected MLAs decide who will be the Chief Minister. Don't forget, Sonia Gandhi was earlier criticised for choosing Ajit Jogi as Chief Minister in Chhattisgarh in 2000, accepting the sentiments. He did not have much support at that time in the legislature party while the claims of senior leaders like V C Shukla were disregarded. Some sort of informal headcount was done in Madhya Pradesh where Kamal Nath was chosen over Scindia and in Rajasthan where over 60 out of the 100 MLAs were supporting Gehlot. If it was a close contest, then it would have been different. But the gap was glaring. I don't think blaming Congress leadership is entirely correct. Democracy is all about numbers.
Q. Has the Congress central leadership, especially the Gandhi leadership, had not intervened effectively in the crisis?
A. Their hands were tied because increasingly in recent times, they have started investing in Chief Ministers who are given a free hand. It is not like the times of Indira Gandhi or Rajiv Gandhi when rival factions will come to Delhi to brief the leadership. Now, the leadership does not have inputs from various sides. The General Secretary in-charges are now more in the hands of the Chief Ministers. You don't get independent inputs. At the same time, you need money to run the party and for that you need to rely more on Chief Ministers. Any internal opposition is actively discouraged.
Q. How do you think the crisis will pan out?
A. If Pilot had any inclination to stay in this, there would have been efforts to get out a statement that he has full faith in the leadership of the Gandhis. That statement has not come. The fact that there were raids in some places in Rajasthan, the timing of it and Pilot's meeting with Scindia, all these things point to a plot. When it happened in Madhya Pradesh, it happened in two-three stages. It did not happen in a single day. Something happened on March 1, then something happened later, Scindia joined much later and so on. There is a pattern and there seems to be a plot. We will have to wait how it pans out. Pilot is not Scindia, who comes from an RSS or Hindu Maha Sabha background. Pilot does not come from an RSS background. His political DNA is not that of Scindias. Then, it also depends on how Vasundhara Raje accepts it. In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan played a big role in bringing in Scindia. We do not know Raje's attitude towards Pilot.
Q. There is this constant chatter about the battle between the old guard and the younger generation in Congress. Why is there this kind of animosity between the two groups?
A. I think this is exaggerated. Nobody is young. We are talking about leaders who are above 45 years or 50 years. You look at BJP. You have B S Yeddyurappa in Karnataka and you have Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh and you know how both handled the Covid-19 crisis. So, it is not much about age. Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, who is in his 70s, is doing well. The key point is the Gandhis are at the centre. Those who are close to them have a premium. So anybody who is close to them becomes a target for others. Nobody is questioning the Gandhis. It is the people near Gandhis who come under question within Congress. The blame is always on the people around them. Seldom the leader is blamed. Sonia is at the helm of affairs from 1998 and Rahul from 2004. All those people who are now unhappy with the Gandhis, when did they discover that Sonia's leadership has weakness or she is not able to strike a balance. Obviously, this did not happen between 2004 and 2014 when the UPA was in power. Nobody left the party then. Only when you are out of power, you lose that self-belief. The magnitude of the 2019 defeat has an explanation.
Q. An argument is that there is a leadership crisis at the central level. Some say Rahul Gandhi should be blamed. Leaders are divided about Rahul at the helm. How do you see that?
A. Somebody has to take the leadership. An average Congressman has reconciled to the fact that the Gandhis are first among equals. There is no hierarchy as per merit. For instance, the Congress Working Committee has very few directly elected lawmakers. Other than the Gandhis, there will be just a couple of them. Under PV Narasimha Rao, the Congress lost power and under Sitaram Kesari's presidentship, there was not much hope. Between 1998 and 2004 also, there was no hope for Congress. Outside world blames the Gandhis for everything but within the party, there is not much criticism against the Gandhis because they know that only the Gandhis can deliver. Where is the revolt against the Gandhis? The revolt comes from people like Shehzad Poonewala in 2017 or Sanjay Jha in 2020. These are very low-level rebellions. One should recall that Rao faced a rebellion from leaders of stature like Arjun Singh and N D Tiwari.
Q. Do you think under the present circumstances, Sonia Gandhi is the best bet and her continuation as the party president would help Congress?
A. I don't think the continuation of Sonia will help. The return of Rahul can help because there is one leadership. Sonia had been there in the coalition era and managed its contradictions. Now, it requires a different approach in an era of hyper-nationalism. It will be slightly more difficult for Sonia. For Rahul, it is a lot easier.
Q. Several Congress leaders are facing corruption charges and being questioned by several agencies. Has the dent in Congress' image a problem for the party to bounce back?
A. I think that dented image is there but it cuts across all parties. You look at electoral bonds and all kinds of things (under the BJP). We know that during elections, candidates of all parties spent more than the permitted Rs 70 lakh for a campaign but the Chartered Accountants help them in keeping these expenses below the permitted mark. At one level, everybody is corrupt. It is only a matter of how much. This is a very carefully curated narrative that the BJP has been able to build that the Congress is a corrupt party with allegations like those against the functioning of the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation etc. Congress is losing the battle of communication. While in Opposition, the general trend is that you are more accessible to the media. Today, it is far easier to interview Modi or Amit Shah or J P Nadda. But it is very difficult to get an interview with Sonia, Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi.