After having the lowest ever value of R from mid-May to late-June since the epidemic began, India’s Covid-19 situation has started to look not so rosy from end-June with the experts maintaining that the next few days are crucial to determine whether it would tip over.
While R or reproduction number is still less than one, it's higher numerical value means that the rate at which active cases were going down have slowed down considerably. This increases the likelihood of having another chance event pushing the country to another wave.
The India-wide situation remains a worrying one as after going down a bit from 0.98 (July 6-10) to 0.92 (July 10-13), R is back again to 0.95 from July 22, as per the findings of a disease prediction model from scientists at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai.
Reproduction number signals an epidemic’s ability to spread. For instance, an R value of 1.5 would mean that 10 Covid-19 positive persons can spread the infections to 15 others. For the epidemic to subside, the R value should stay below one.
The Union Health Ministry data shows a consistent decline in average daily new cases since the week ending May 11 till June end. For the entire July, the number remains stagnant with no further dip.
“Kerala, the state with the highest number of active cases continues to have R around 1.1, so looks like it will remain in the top spot for the next couple of weeks. The North-east continues to have a very bad situation with most states having R greater than one,” Sitabhra Sinha, IMSc scientist who has been tracking the pandemic with his model since last year, told DH.
Another such model developed by Bhramar Mukherjee and her colleagues at the University of Michigan also conclude that Kerala and the North-East are the troubling spots.
The health ministry on Thursday sent a high-level team to Kerala “to collaborate with the state health authorities to institute effective public health measures for Covid-19 management in view of the significantly enhanced number of daily Covid-19 cases being reported.”
Among other states Uttarakhand has a R value very close to one (0.99 as per the IMSc model) at the moment because of which the hill state needs to be watched. Among the major cities Pune has a R greater than 1 whereas Delhi’s R value is also close to one as on July 24.