India is likely to see a rise in Covid-19 infections, building into a new -- though smaller -- virus wave that may peak in October, according to a mathematical model by researchers who accurately predicted the brutal surge of cases earlier this year.
The country may see worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking in the best-case scenario with less than 100,000 infections a day, or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario, according to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively.
States with high Covid rates, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture,” according to Vidyasagar.
A surge in Covid cases in Kerala, which is now leading the country in the number of daily infections and total cases, has already caused concern with a central team visiting the state to assess the situation.
Its neighbouring state, Karnataka, has also been witnessing a surge in Covid-19 cases in districts along the Kerala border. As per the state war room report, four districts along the Kerala border have a weekly TPR (average of seven days from July 23 to 29) inching towards 5 per cent: Dakshina Kannada (4.42%), Chikkamagaluru (3.67%), Kodagu (3.44%) and Udupi (3.39%).
On Sunday, for the first time, Dakshina Kannada overtook Bengaluru Urban in the number of Covid cases posted on a single day. It recorded 410 new cases, while Bengaluru Urban registered 409 fresh infections. This represents a 75.7 per cent increase in cases in Dakshina Kannada over the past week.
This forced the Karnataka government to tighten norms for travellers from Kerala and Maharashtra. All those travelling to Karnataka from these two states will now have to produce a RT-PCR negative certificate that is not older than 72 hours, apart from showing a vaccination certificate stating that the person has taken both doses of vaccine.
Similarly, Tamil Nadu, which saw a marginal increase in Covid cases in the past few days, has made it mandatory to carry RT-PCR test reports from August 5 for those coming from Kerala. The state government has also empowered district collectors to go in for local containment efforts, including imposing additional restrictions in their area if the need arises.
Conjuring up fears of a third Covid-19 wave, a nationwide survey has revealed that 28 per cent of the respondents have travel plans in August-September. A substantial 54 per cent of these travellers indicated that they would visit their friends and family, while 26 per cent want to head to holiday destinations, the survey report said.
On the Covid-19 vaccine front, a recent ICMR study said that Bharat Biotech's Covaxin is effective against the Delta Plus variant.
In another major development, Mumbai-based Glenmark pharmaceuticals has signed a long term strategic partnership with Canadian biotech firm SaNOtize Research & Development Corp. to manufacture, market and distribute its breakthrough Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray (NONS) for Covid-19 treatment in India and other Asian markets.
Meanhwile, the drug regulator said on Monday that Johnson & Johnson withdrew its proposal seeking accelerated approval of its Covid-19 vaccine in the country, without giving additional details. The US-based company had said in April it was seeking an approval to conduct a clinical study of its Janssen Covid-19 vaccine candidate in India. Trials in the United States at that time were paused on reports of rare blood clots.