As the Opposition initiates talks for a united front against the ruling BJP in the upcoming Tripura Assembly elections, the CPI(M) is keen to rope in Tipra Motha into its fold at a time it feels that the Congress is “exaggerating” its strength in the state and seeking “unreasonable” number of seats.
Both the CPI(M), which lost Tripura to the BJP in the 2018 polls after a 25-year uninterrupted rule, and Congress have announced that they will fight the elections together and initiated a discussion on the contours of the electoral alliance last Friday but the Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma-led Tipra Motha, which has “huge” influence in tribal belt is yet to join.
The CPI(M) is keen that Tipra Motha, which demands a separate state, join the grouping as its influence is not limited to 20 seats reserved for the tribals. Tipra Motha could also influence a substantial number of tribal voters in the 40 non-tribal seats and it is calculated that it has a substantial presence in at least 12-15 such seats.
Deb Barma, who has earlier positioned himself as an anti-Left politician before he left Congress, is not averse to doing business with the CPI(M) after Jitendra Choudhury became the Left party’s Tripura Secretary. His anti-Left position was basically to do with former Chief Minister Manik Sarkar but he has a good relationship with Choudhury, sources said.
But the sticking question will be Tipra Motha’s demand for a separate state. The CPI(M) may not agree with such a demand but is keen to promise maximum autonomy to the tribals armed with a Constitutional guarantee.
Once the alliance is firmed up, the distribution of seats will be a problem for the Opposition parties due to the competing claims of parties. CPI(M) leaders said their party remains on top while Tipra Motha is more influential than Congress. If one takes the tribal sector alone, Tipra Motha has an edge over the CPI(M).
CPI(M) leaders believe Congress, which failed to win a single seat and its vote share slid to 1.79 per cent five years ago compared to 36.53 per cent in 2013, can win a maximum of half-a-dozen seats this time but seeking 25-30 seats, which is half of the seats available. Sources said Congress would bargain for at least 20 seats.
However, sources said, the CPI(M), which won 16 seats in 2018 (as against 49 in 2013) with a vote share of 42.22 per cent, is not keen to leave that many seats to the Congress.
“This is the problem with Congress. They did the same in Bihar and we saw the results. They say their vote share has increased citing a bypoll victory. But that is just one seat, in which Sudeep Barman retained seat after returning from the BJP. He is the son of a former Chief Minister and it is their stronghold. That cannot be the basis,” a senior leader told DH.
Asked why the CPI(M), which has not lost a substantial vote share in the previous election, wants an alliance, the leader said they could not reach out to its support base in the past five years due to a “reign of terror” unleashed by the BJP government. In some cases, the leader said, the impact was that people were forced to support the BJP.