A well-marked low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is likely to concentrate into a depression and later as a cyclonic storm, which is expected to make a landfall between Karaikal in Puducherry and Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu on November 25.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal regions would witness rainfall at most places. Some areas might experience heavy to very heavy showers, while extremely heavy rains is a possibility at isolated places.
IIt said that the south-west and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal has become a well-marked low-pressure area. It persists over the same region, adding that the low pressure is very likely to concentrate into a depression over the south-west Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours.
“It is very likely to move north-westwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around 25 November 2020 noon/afternoon,” the IMD said.
The cyclonic storm, if it develops into one, will be known as Cyclone Nivar and the first in the region this year.
Independent weather blogger Pradeep John forecast two scenarios wherein a weak cyclone makes its landfall in the Cauvery Delta region, while in the case of a strong cyclone, the landfall area will be between Karaikal to Chennai.
“In the first scenario of a weak cyclone, the landfall will be between Vedaranyam and Karaikal with wind speed going up to 70 km per hour. This will bring widespread heavy rains from Delta to Chennai and extreme rains to Delta,” John said.
In the second scenario of landfall between Karaikal and Chennai, the wind speed may go up to 120 to 140 km per hour. This will ensure northern Tamil Nadu districts, including Chennai, get very heavy rains. Tamil Nadu experienced its last Cyclone in 2018 when Cyclone Gaja left a trail of destruction across the Cauvery Delta region.