The BJP will in all probability lose Rajasthan while arch-rival Congress is giving it a tough fight in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it could even upstage the BJP, exit polls for the recently concluded Assembly polls predicted on Friday.
However, Congress may lose Mizoram, the only state in the north-east it now rules, to a BJP-backed regional party Mizo National Front (MNF). Though none of the exit polls has predicted a Congress majority in Telangana, it can still hope for a miracle as three of the six polls indicate a hung assembly.
The counting of votes to the five states will be held on December 11 and the results of these elections, dubbed the semifinal before the Lok Sabha showdown next year, will have an impact on the morale of both BJP and Opposition.
The Opposition, especially Congress, is keenly watching the results as a positive outcome would cement its efforts to forge unity among the anti-BJP parties to take on the Narendra Modi-led regime. BJP, on the other hand, is hoping for the exact opposite to ensure that any Opposition effort is fizzled out.
Both BJP and Congress could read positives from a clutch of exit polls but Opposition parties are more hopeful as the predictions was not giving a clean sweep to the saffron party in any state.
Rajasthan was the only state that gave a clear picture with all the eight polls giving Congress a clear majority over BJP. Various polls gave 99 to 141 seats for Congress in Rajasthan where the half-way mark is 101 with Axis giving it the maximum possible while BJP could get 55 to 93 seats.
Though BJP is said to have regained some ground during the last leg of campaigning, leaders in BJP had privately admitted that they were not on a strong wicket and could lose due to unpopularity of Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje.
However, when it comes to Madhya Pradesh, three each exit polls predicted ruling BJP and Congress could win while two placed its bet on hung assembly. The polls which gave Congress the edge were CSDS (126), CVoter (118) and Today's Chanakya (125) while CNX (126), News National (118) and VDPA Associates (135) predicted a BJP surge. However, Axis and India News-NETA predicted a cliffhanger.
BJP leaders have said that agrarian crisis and the anger from both upper castes and Dalits over SC/ST Bill could be the reasons for their bad show in case of losing power in the state, which the saffron party has been ruling for the past 15 years.
Another BJP stronghold, Chhattisgarh could also go the Congress this time with three exit polls giving it a decisive edge. BJP too got three on its side while two predicted hung assembly.
If one believes the exit polls, former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi's Janata Chhattisgarh Congress and BSP combine, which was believed to have cut into Congress votes, did not have much impact on voters. The combine is predicted to win only 3-8 seats.
Telangana may not bring great news for Congress as it had expected that it would be able to do a last minute magic to dethrone K Chandrasekhar Rao-led TRS.
TRS is the front-runner in three exit polls with one of the polls – Axis – predicting that it could even win a maximum of 91 seats, one more than the 2014 polls. However, Congress still hopes that for a close fight as indicated by three other polls.
Mizoram could be another set back for Congress as all the three exit polls – CNX, Axis and Cvoter – suggesting that MNF dethroning Congress. However, all the three polls show a close contest.