The chief ministers of the five states that went to the polls.
Credit: PTI Photos, X/@bhupeshbaghel
New Delhi: Exit polls on Thursday predicted the Congress ousting BRS from power in Telangana and returning to power in Chhattisgarh but found itself in a tight spot in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where BJP may end up with an edge.
Mizoram, like Rajasthan, is a cliffhanger where ruling MNF is facing a tough challenge from ZPM and none of the exit polls provided a clear winner in the north-eastern state where Congress and BJP will try to woo the regional parties to be in the game.
While parties on the losing side in states sought to doubt the predictions and insisted on the counting of actual votes on December 3, the exit poll results were a mixed bag for the BJP and the Congress – the BJP was not ceding ground to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh as easily as expected while the Congress too appeared to be closing the gap in Rajasthan.
All the seven exit polls analysed by DH – India Today-Axis My India, ABP-CVoter, India TV-CNX, TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstart, P-Marq, Jann Ki Baat and News 24-Today’s Chanakya – gave a clear edge to Congress in Telangana and Chhattisgarh where its majority appeared to be reducing.
In Telangana, the Congress is predicted to oust the ruling BRS, which was in power since 2014, with Today’s Chanakya predicting a maximum of 80 seats and a minimum of 62.
The CNX poll predicted 63-79 seats and P-Marq gave 58-71, while Polstart (49-59), CVoter (49-65) and Jann Ki Baat (48-64) also backed in the Congress in Telangana, where the majority mark is 60. The BRS was predicted to win 31 to 58 seats by various polls.
In Chhattisgarh, where the half-way mark is 46, the Congress was predicted to win 40 to 65 seats while the BJP was expected to win 30-48 seats. While Axis My India and P-Marq gave Congress 40-50 seats, they gave BJP 36-46 and 35-45 seats. CVoter gave BJP 36-48 seats while the Congress was given 41-53 seats.
If the Chhattisgarh number becomes a reality, it will be a setback for the Congress, as it will be losing a number of seats from the 68 it won in 2018, which had also increased to 71 in bypolls.
Three exit polls gave BJP a huge win in Madhya Pradesh – My Axis India (140-162), CNX (140-159) and Today’s Chanakya (151 +/-12) – while two others – CVoter (113-137) and Polstart (111-121) – gave the Congress an edge. P-Marq (103-122 each) and Jann Ki Baat (Congress: 102-125; BJP 100-123) predicted a really close fight.
The Congress was initially expected to romp home comfortably but it appears that Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has managed to regain ground.
Similar to Chouhan, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot also appeared to have managed to close the gap with the BJP, with exit polls predicting a close fight.
Except one, none of the polls gave a clear majority to the Congress but the polls predicted the Congress to be in the 90s-club. A party needs 101 seats and Today’s Chanakya predicted the polls with a margin of 12 on either side for the party.
The polls which gave the Congress the edge were Axis My India (86-106) and CNX (94-104), while the BJP was predicted to get 80-100 and 80-90 seats respectively. The BJP got a clear edge in CVoter (94-114), Polstart (100-110), P-Marq (105-125) and Jann Ki Baat (100-122) surveys.
Mizoram is likely to see a hung assembly with the ruling MNF finding itself in trouble and the Opposition ZPM finding itself better placed.
While Axis My India gave just 3-7 seats to MNF, others gave 10-21, the ZPM was predicted to get 9-35. Axis My India poll gave clear victory to ZPM – 28-35 seats in an Assembly of 40.