Representative image of extreme weather.
Credit: iStock Photo
Halfway through south-west monsoon 2023, experts and scientists say that extreme weather events are going to increase in the coming years.
The country has been witnessing normal to surplus monsoon rains for the last five years, according to a paper compiled by Climate Trends.
This year too, the country is likely to record normal rains but with El Nino building in the Pacific Ocean, chances of below normal Monsoon cannot be ignored. However irrespective of monsoon's performance, experts are expecting extreme weather events to increase in the coming years.
“Characteristics of Monsoon have undergone some major changes, which have altered rainfall patterns, intensity, and frequency. These changes are constantly evolving with the increasing global temperatures. As a result, extreme weather events have also increased exponentially. What happened in Himachal Pradesh and other parts of Northwest India is evidence of how climate change is impacting and altering the Monsoon season in India. In fact, these impacts would continue to multiply if temperatures continue to rise,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President-Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
“The risk of sequential extremes can rise up to 10 times for a few states if global mean temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Karnataka have higher projected risk of sequential extremes than the other states,” said Dr Dr Vimal Mishra, Professor, Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, IIT Gandhinagar.
“Adaptation challenges would continue to mount with increased extremes. While heat waves result in mortality and pose challenges for public health infrastructure, prolonged incessant rain spells lead to floods, directly impacting agriculture and infrastructure, causing human migration and loss of lives. Thus, India needs a significant reduction in vulnerability and climate change mitigation to reduce the risk of extremes,” said Dr Mishra.
"We must remember, the Himalayan mountains have a fragile ecology, which has limited capacity to bear such incessant rains. This has put the hilly states, especially Himachal and Uttarakhand, in a danger zone,” said Professor Y P Sundriyal, Head, Department of Geology, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar, Uttarakhand.
“The Himalayas have emerged as the hotspot for climate change. While last year it was Uttarakhand, this year it was Himachal Pradesh which is bearing the brunt of global warming. Himalayas act as a barrier, which confronts the moist winds coming from the Arabian Sea as well as the Bay of Bengal. With increasing temperatures, both at the surface and at sea level, there has been a considerable increase in moisture content, which makes it a prone zone for torrential rains,” he added.