The argument that Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF and Bodoland Peoples Front (BPF) provided an edge to the Congress-led grand alliance against the ruling BJP and its allies in Assam is set for a test on Tuesday when polling for remaining 40 Assembly seats would be conducted.
A total of 337 candidates are fighting their electoral battle in the constituencies in Western Assam districts, where Muslim votes and the equation in Bodoland region are going to be the deciding factors.
In 2016 polls in these 40 seats, BJP and Congress had bagged 11 seats each and Ajmal's AIUDF and BPF won eight seats each. BPF, an ally of BJP then, had won all 12 seats in Bodoland, of which eight in the third phase. According to Congress, BJP had won in a few seats, particularly in Muslim dominated Dhubri and Goalpara districts mainly due to division of Muslim votes between Congress and AIUDF in 2016 polls.
With both AIUDF and BPF in the opposition camp this time, the third phase could take away a few seats from the ruling BJP and its ally AGP, which had bagged four seats in 2016.
Some of the districts where Muslim votes are likely to be deciding factors are Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta and Kamrup. The Opposition Congress and AIUDF are banking on the anti-CAA votes and BJP's alleged U-turn on the NRC. BJP's manifesto promised a "corrected" NRC, which the opposition parties think is "a ploy" to target the Bengali-speaking Muslims in the western Assam districts. BJP is seeking a reverification of 20 per cent samples of the NRC applications in the districts bordering Bangladesh (Dhubri is one such district) and 10 per cent applications in rest of Assam.
Also, BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma's statement that his party does not require the votes of "Miya" people (Bengali speaking Muslims) could go against the ruling party candidates. But BJP leaders hope that these factors would help the saffron party mobilise the Hindu Bengalis and other "anti-Miya" votes.
In Bodoland, BJP is banking on its new ally United People's Party Liberal after it severed its ties with BPF just before elections of Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) in December. BJP and BPF is ruling the council. "People are with BPF as we won 17 out of 40 seats in BTC elections," BPF chief Hagrama Mohilary said.
Assam ministers Himanta Biswa Sarma (Jalukbari), Chandra Mohan Patowary (Dharmapur), BJP state president Ranjeet Kumar Dass (Patacharkuchi) are among the prominent candidates contesting in the western Assam constituencies.
Congress is contesting in 24 seats, AIUDF in 12, AGP in 13, BJP in 20 seats and Assam Jatiya Parishad in 22 in the third phase.
Election for 47 seats was conducted in the first phase on March 27 and for 39 seats on April 1.