An armed confrontation between India and China topped the list of the potential inter-state conflicts the United States intelligence community anticipated in the latest annual threat assessment report.
The second potential inter-state conflict listed in the report also involves India and its western neighbour Pakistan.
“While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades,” according to the annual threat assessment report of the US intelligence agencies – Directorate of National Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and the Defence Intelligence Agency.
The report noted that the expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed boundary between them elevated the risk of armed confrontation between the two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to the US persons and interests and calls for US intervention. “Previous stand-offs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly,” the US intelligence agencies pointed out in the annual report.
Avril Hynes, Director of National Intelligence, and the chiefs of the other US intelligence agencies presented the report before the American Congress.
China in April-May 2020 deployed a large number of troops of its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) along the western sector of its LAC with India, in order to unilaterally change the status quo along the de facto boundary between the two nations. The Indian Army too had to deploy additional troops to resist the Chinese PLA’s move to push the LAC westward. This resulted in a military stand-off, which could not be completely resolved yet.
Though protracted negotiations in the past three years led to the mutual withdrawal of troops by both the Indian Army and the Chinese PLA from some of the face-off points – Galwan Valley, northern and southern banks of Pangong Tso, Gogra Post and Gogra-Hotsprings area – along the LAC, the stand-off could not be resolved completely so far.
The Chinese PLA continues to block the Indian Army’s access to several patrolling points in Depsang and Demchok areas along the LAC.
The two sides also continue to maintain a large number of troops in the “depth areas” along the disputed boundary. India has of late speeded up building infrastructure along the disputed boundary in response to massive build-up over the past few years by China.
The US intelligence community expressed concern over the crises between India and Pakistan, underlining the “risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states”. The report noted that New Delhi and Islamabad were “probably inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control (LoC) in early 2021. “However”, it added, “Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations.”
Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints, the report by the US intelligence community pointed out.