There could be more border clashes between India and China due to Beijing's economic interests and domestic compulsions, a research paper by a senior IPS officer submitted for the recently concluded conference of heads of state police chiefs here has said.
The paper, written by Superintendent of Police (Leh) PD Nitya, said an analysis of the pattern of skirmishes and tensions on the India-China border, one would see that the intensity has increased since 2013-14 with an interval of every 2-3 years.
It argued that India should be prepared to counter China's "inch-by-inch" strategy with "no fall back" strategy and it should be even applicable to the buffer zones, which informally became the Chinese military's patrolling areas and they stake their claims over the years.
"Given the domestic compulsions of the (ruling) Communist Party (Covid-19 protests etc) in China and their economic interests in the region, the PLA (People's Liberation Army) would continue to build up its military infrastructure and skirmishes would also get frequent which may or may not follow a pattern," the paper said.
Since 1962, it said, the face offs at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has been constant from Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim to Ladakh, starting from 1967 (at Nathula Pass in Sikkim), 1975 (gunshots were exchanged at Tawang) and 1987 (aggression by PLA on granting statehood to Arunachal Pradesh.
While an understanding was reached in 1996 not to use firearms within two km of LAC, the paper said in 2014, there was a 20 day stand-off at Demchok in eastern Ladakh followed by a 72 day stand off in Doklam. In 2020, there was the Galwan valley incident in which 20 Indian soldiers were martyred.
The paper said Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh were the main face-off theatres since 1962 though Ladakh was generally considered to be more peaceful.
It argued for a "new sense of purpose" regarding border management and suggested that the authorities could bank upon the tourism sector in a big way to boost an economic incentive for borders.
"Given our limitation to be part of OBOR (One Belt One Road) or the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), there is a need for our border defence strategy to be given an economic incentive for the future. The strategy needs to be area specific," it said.
The paper suggested that tourism can be promoted aggressively in Depsang plains. The Karakoram Pass is an ancient connect to silk route history and opening the area to domestic tourists would counter the remoteness of the area, it said adding the expeditions on Karakoram PAss which were famous since 1930s can be restarted and trekking or hiking routes could be opened in a limited manner.
It said a circuit of memorials starting from Drass to Siachen to Hot Springs and then to Rezang La can promote 'patriotic tourism'.
The paper has also emphasised the need for establishing border police to ensure that grievances of local villagers are addressed and tension between security forces and civilians are dealt amicably reducing resentment and miscommunication.