Despite an El-Nino threat, India is going to have a normal monsoon this year with the country receiving 96 per cent of its average seasonal rainfall between June and September, India Meteorological Department said here on Tuesday.
The met office cautioned that the second half of the monsoon season could be hit by the El Nino – an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean that plays havoc with the weather systems around the world – lowering the precipitation in July and September.
“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average with a model error of 5 per cent on either side. The LPA for the country is 87 cm based on 1971-2020 rainfall data,” said Mrutyunjay Mahapatra, director general IMD.
The national weather bureau’s first forecast for the 2023 season comes a day after a private agency (Skymet) released a forecast claiming this year's monsoon would be “below normal” due to the El Nino threats.
Mahapatra said there had been 15 El Nino years between 1951 and 2022 and in six of those years the rainfall was normal to above normal. This, according to the IMD officials, means all drought years were El Nino years, but all El Nino years need not necessarily lead to a drought.
The IMD chief added that two other climatic factors – Indian Ocean Dipole and snow cover over the northern hemisphere – were in favour of a normal monsoon.
“The models show that the El Nino that would develop around July will be a moderate one with an increase of 0.5 degrees Celsius in sea surface temperature,” he added.
Last three years were La Nina years – cooling of the Pacific, benefiting the monsoon – because of which India received copious rains.
One of the world's biggest producers and consumers of farm goods, India relies on monsoon rains to water almost half its farmland, which lacks irrigation. Farming contributes around 15 per cent to India's over $ 3 trillion economy while sustaining more than half the population of 1.3 billion.
The official forecast is based on two sets of models that the IMD has been using – a six-parameter statistical model and a dynamical model that the scientists have been perfecting over the years. “The dynamic models are dominant and most of them show a normal monsoon,” said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Mohapatra said 'normal' to 'below-normal' rainfall was predicted over parts of north-west India, west-central and north-east regions during the south-west monsoon season. "Normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining the east-central, east, north-east and some parts of north-west India," he said.