India’s Covid count dropped below 100,000 on Monday after a gap of 31 days, providing yet another signal of an ebbing third wave as the experts advocate a return to the normalcy.
According to the Union Health Ministry, there were 83,876 new cases registered in the last 24 hours (Sunday). This is for the first time since January 5 when the number of new cases was less than a lakh.
The peak of the third wave was seen on January 20 with more than 3.47 lakh fresh cases. Since then it has been a steady decline.
“From multiple modeling studies, we understand that the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic across India was expected between Jan 20 and Feb 10, with major cities peaking towards the earlier date. What we are seeing is consistent with that trend,” Gautam Menon, a professor of physics and biology at the Ashoka University, Sonipat told DH.
The number of districts with a weekly test positivity of more than 10% has also dipped to 221 on Monday from 388 as of January 30. The number of districts with a positivity between 5-10% stands at 165, whereas the number of districts with less than 5% positivity swells up to 347.
“The trends overall suggest that across India, Feb 10 or a bit later would be a good time to consider reopening and a return to some semblance of normalcy across the country,” said Menon.
Last month the Union Home Ministry extended the validity of the Covid-19 containment measures till February 28 asking the states not to lower their guards. However, when the order was issued (on Jan 27), more than 10% positivity was reported from 407 districts.
“While it's reassuring that the number of new cases are decreasing, it would be critical to ensure that there is no complacency of public health preparedness,” said Oommen John, a senior public health researcher at the George Institute for Global Health, here.
“We need to aim for a new normal, wherein anyone who is at risk of complications due to Covid-19 and particularly those experiences new onset illnesses as a result of Covid-19 are diagnosed correctly and managed as per evolving guidelines for Long Covid,” he said.
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