In the previous waves, the number of Covid-19 deaths largely hit the apex before or during the peak of the respective outbreaks. But in the ongoing third wave, fatalities are increasing even though Karnataka has officially crossed its peak.
In January 2022, the state recorded 753 Covid-19 fatalities, with an average of 24 fatalities being recorded per day. The state hit its peak on January 23, when 50,210 cases were recorded. Since then, the number of new cases being found have rapidly tapered off, but deaths have actually started to rise since January 25, averaging about 44 per day.
Dr C N Manjunath, member of Karnataka’s Task Force on Covid-19, told DH that the epidemiological pattern shows that the death numbers will be high even as the wave
tapers off. According to virologist Dr Shahid Jameel, Director of Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University, this is because “deaths follow two to three weeks after detection”.
Health Commissioner D Randeep added that these sudden increases were a result of “late referrals and deaths with comorbidities.”
Most of the fatalities are among the elderly, shows an analysis of data from the Department of Health and Family Welfare and the State Covid War Room.
About 65% of the 845 people who died of the disease since the start of the third wave on December 29 were senior citizens (The State War Room posted a higher total death tally of 879 as of February 2, indicating that some deaths were yet to be disclosed).
That senior citizens are facing the worst outcomes despite vaccinations comes as little surprise to Dr Anoop Amarnath, an expert in geriatric medicine at Manipal Hospital (Old Airport Road) and a member of the state’s Critical Care Support Unit.
“The number of cases of senior citizens and fatalities we are seeing reflects what we are seeing on the ground. The morbidity goes up following the peak of hospitalisations,” he said.
In the case of the elderly, he added that while vaccinations curtail the severity of infection, the severity of comorbidities is also important. “In the third wave, we are finding that mortality is primarily associated with Delta-variant-like features in patients such as inflammation markers being high and cytokine storms. Vaccinations may cause a decrease of symptoms but if a patient has severe comorbidity, it often means that they lack a defensive immune reserve to overcome the infection,” he said.
Data also shows that the burden of deaths is now increasingly being borne by districts other than Bengaluru Urban. Since January 25, the deaths comprise 15% of the statewide total. Meanwhile, Home Isolation deaths (different from “died at home” fatalities) have not been a major factor in the third wave.
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