University of London professor James Manor, a long-time observer of Karnataka politics, said Tuesday that the ruling BJP faces infighting and anti-incumbency ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections while the Congress, too, has its own challenges.
“Internal infighting is a serious problem now for BJP. This could be a reason why BJP may not win,” Manor, who has studied Karnataka’s politics and history for 50 years, said at a webinar organised by the Bangalore International Centre.
“When you get 'Operation Kamalas' taking place, they always cause factional infighting between long-term loyalists and the defecting turncoats," Manor said, referring to the defection of 17 MLAs from the Congress-JD(S) coalition in 2019. "The Karnataka BJP is plagued with these conflicts.”
Allegations of corruption might damage the BJP, according to Manor, citing as examples the ‘40 per cent commission’ charge, deprecating comments made by a High Court judge on how files do not move without bribes and Law Minister JC Madhuswamy being caught on tape saying there's no functioning government.
"It’s a bit late in the day to turnaround what looks like a negative record for BJP MLAs. If I was a BJP supporter, I’d be worried that BJP MLAs are less popular now," he said.
Manor said it is very hard for a state government, even those that governed well, to get re-elected. “The last time it happened was 37 years ago."
The Congress faces three problems and one of them is the factional fight between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. “Can Congress attract Vokkaliga votes when they’re alienated by Ahinda? Will divisions within Congress affect the party? Will the fragmented OBCs respond to Ahinda?” Manor said.
Mallikarjun Kharge's election as AICC president will "probably protect Congress from damaging interventions by the high command”, he added.
The JD(S) cannot be written off, according to Manor. “This is seen by some people as HD Deve Gowda’s last election. His emotional pleas may attract more support from Vokkaligas, some of whom also resent Siddaramaiah’s Ahinda emphasis,” he said. “Perhaps, JD(S) may not do too badly. If it does even somewhat well, it’ll be bad news for Congress.”
Manor said two things could help the BJP - their access to large amounts of money and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign.
"There’s one odd thing to notice: all three main parties in Karnataka increasingly give most of their tickets to crorepatis," Manor said. "In 2018, 99 per cent of Congress MLAs were crorepatis, 98 per cent in BJP and 95 per cent in JD(S)."