The Covid-19 situation in Maharashtra changed in just a matter of 45 days and the possibility of state-specific mutant variation need to be examined besides micro-planning future arrangements and strategies to combat the viral pandemic, according to Pune-based family physician Dr Avinash Bhondwe.
“On 1 February, we had around 1,900 cases in a day while on 18 March, we had over 25,000 cases in a day... this is an exponential increase and a major challenge,” said Dr Bhondwe, the President of Indian Medical Association-Maharashtra State.
“This is an alarming situation… we cannot shy away from admitting it… total lockdown may not be the correct option as you need to carry out lockdown more than what is doubling rate… around 150 to 170 days, we cannot afford that… what we need is micro-planning to deal with the situation,” he told DH on Friday.
According to Dr Bhonwde, the majority of the patients are of the age group of 20 to 45; and 90 per cent plus patients are asymptomatic or mild-symptomatic.
“It's one year of Covid-19 in the state… we peaked in September-October, 2020, and, after that, we saw a flattening of the curve,” he said, pointing out that post-Diwali people started slowing going back to normal in November.
“People not wearing masks was an issue then also, now also… plus we had gram panchayat elections, marriages and crowing in shopping areas… this was happening for December-January… but we saw a downward movement full January,” he said.
Dr Bhondwe further pointed out that in February cases increased slowly and then jumped. “We have admitted that this is the second wave… it will peak further, very fast,” he said, pointing out that this leads to the fact that there is a possibility of a mutant strain.
“We have seen mutant strains in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil,” he said, noting that these strains of Maharashtra, which is the epicentre of Covid-19 in India, needs to be analysed in detail.