Sanjay Bhattacharyya.
The 2024 parliamentary elections in India have come to an end. The electorate has delivered the democracy dividend with the BJP emerging as the largest party and the NDA led by it gaining the majority in the Lok Sabha. The opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc received a boost. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will commence his third term in office on June 9. He said that his coalition government would pursue widespread reforms, provide governance based on consensus, and lead the nation toward ‘Viksit Bharat’.
India’s foreign policy is at an interesting juncture. As the fastest-growing major economy and the fifth-largest GDP globally, India’s priority is rapid economic development. The growth in capacity and capability is coupled with a willingness to play her due role in regional and global affairs. In a multipolar world, India’s strategic autonomy with a network of strategic partnerships will be central in the path towards better global governance. India needs the world, and the world needs India.
While the domestic situation is buoyant, the global outlook is in flux. There are headwinds due to economic slowdown in developed countries and challenges to security and stability due to war in Europe and the Middle East. Further, over 60 countries are having elections in 2024; the emerging leadership, both new and old, will need to collaborate on pressing global issues. The government has asked diplomats to maintain active engagement with foreign partners to enhance India's national strength and position in the global community.
The priorities for India's foreign policy in Prime Minister Modi’s third term will be to advance economic development, increase national strength, integrate with a globalised world, enhance the sovereignty of decision-making, and play an active role in regional and global affairs.
The Chinese Dragon
The dragon in the room is China. For a long time, there was peace and tranquility in border areas and bilateral agreements and diplomatic negotiations enabled a cooperative relationship. However, in recent years, China's domestic imbalances and anxiety to be a global power led to assertive and unilateral actions of encroachment and use of force in border areas, in violation of international law and bilateral agreements. There is an old Chinese saying: “The one who ties the knot must untie it”. In the absence of appropriate measures by China to restore trust, other aspects of the relations, including economic and cultural, could also suffer. As our top trading partner with significant investment opportunities in the Indian economy, China has much at stake. A growing India, with civilisational contacts in her neighbourhood in South Asia as well as in the extended neighbourhoods in Southeast Asia and West Asia, will have a strong countervailing force. China would benefit from long-term stable relations with India. Return to quiet negotiations and avoidance of belligerence can create the opportunity for the two rising powers to get back to cooperative relations and realise the fruits of the Asian century.
Major Power Diplomacy
India’s partnerships with major powers such as the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, and Japan are significant for our development trajectory and for the future of global governance. India will tread the sharp edge and not seek to balance relations in zero-sum scenarios but rather develop strategic autonomy to expand economic and diplomatic space for win-win options.
There are positive spinoffs of multi-sectoral cooperation, especially in high and critical technology, innovation bridges, building resilient value and supply chains, financial cooperation, youth mobility, diaspora engagement, etc. It builds a future-oriented partnership based on shared democratic values and a desire for security and prosperity for citizens. The US sometimes tends to consider friendly democracies as allies, rather than partners, in its fight against authoritarian regimes. India’s wariness on that score has been justified, even while she pursues the logic of the Indo-Pacific and collaboration in the Quad. The quest for freedom, transparency, and a rules-based order is shared by our partners in East Asia, Oceania, and the EU and is gaining new partners. The partnership with Russia, embedded in historical contacts, needs further nourishment to realise its fullest potential.
Engaging Middle Powers
Perhaps the greatest potential will be in strengthening relations with middle and emerging powers, many of which are rooted in positive experiences of civilisational contacts and can be the fulcrum of our development thrust. The Act East will be revitalised with a focus on economic engagement, supply chains, and strategic cooperation; the fast-changing Arab world will be key to energy cooperation, food exports, and skill development and offer strategic opportunities; relations in Africa have moved beyond capacity building to broader cooperation. Overall, the endeavour is to meet the challenges of climate change, sustainable development, and the fight against terrorism. The emergence of the Global South has been another significant step and India's efforts in bringing its concerns to the global table have raised expectations. India is uniquely placed as a friendly country with wide acceptance to be an impartial party seeking solutions to regional issues.
Neighbourhood First
Our ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy will see robust attention as the situation has grown more challenging. The anticipated presence of many leaders from our region at the swearing-in ceremony of the new government attests to this priority. The neighbourhood has seen growth in external influences not only in the development and business space but also in the political sphere. Elite capture and debt-traps have led to polarisation in society and diluted autonomy in decision making and even anti-India sentiments have been cultivated. Policies of unilateral concessions, improved connectivity, economic cooperation, better implementation of projects, and people-to-people contacts can bridge the current bias and foster harmonious relations for peace, prosperity, and stability in the region.
Multipolarity and plurilateralism
India’s push for reforms in the multilateral system and its institutions will continue. The United Nations and institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and WTO cannot make decisions as they represent a bygone era. They can be revived only when the realities of the multipolar world and aspirations of emerging economies are represented. New interest groups such as Global South will add their voice to existing voices for reform. In the interim, plurilateral and regional groupings will assume prominence. India will play a leading role in the G-20, BRICS, SCO, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, IORA, and many other forums.
The essence of diplomacy is to build communities overseas that facilitate the promotion of national interest. India seeks to fashion her future based on dividends accruing from democracy, development, demography, and knowledge, and the foreign policy of the NDA government in its third term is expected to be aligned with this priority.
(The writer is a former Ambassador and Secretary at the Ministry of External Affairs)