There is a seven per cent shortfall in rainfall which is deficient or scanty over 20 meteorological sub-divisions out of the total 36. The culprit: cyclonic storm “Phet”. As per the normal monsoon behaviour, as on June 17, it should have almost completely covered Gujarat, MP, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of eastern UP.
However, the monsoon has covered only half of Gujarat, southern MP, half of Chattisgarh and few parts of Jharkhand and Bihar. Even West Bengal is not fully covered.
Said a Met official: “Due to the formation of the cyclonic storm “Phet” over the Arabian Sea and its movement away from the Indian coast, monsoon activity remained subdued over peninsular India during May last week and June first week”.
“The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during this year’s monsoon has so far been seven per cent below the Long Period Average. Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over nine, normal over seven and deficient /scanty over 20 subdivisions,” he told Deccan Herald.
Due to the movement of the remnants of “Phet” as a depression through south Pakistan up to north-east Rajasthan and its interaction with westerly trough, northwest India recorded widespread rainfall on June 7 and 8. Although Met office sources say there is nothing to worry as this deficiency will be covered as the monsoon progresses further, Union government officials are keeping their fingers crossed. What is bothering them is a repeat of last year’s monsoon performance.
Although, the monsoon began well in south, west and north east India last year, there was an overall drop of 22 per cent. This in turn hit the summer crop.
The current food inflation and overall price rise is blamed on the deficient rainfall up north. An index measuring wholesale prices of agriculture products rose 16.74 per cent in the week ended May 29 compared to a year ago.
This year, the Met department has forecast a normal monsoon at 98 per cent. Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent is considered normal.
A Met official, who declined to be quoted, said: “Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into the remaining parts of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal and Sikkim and some parts of Jharkhand and Bihar during the next 2-3 days. Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of east MP, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. According to main weather observations recorded on June 16, widespread rainfall has occurred over Konkan and Goa, fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, east MP, north eastern States and Andaman Islands, scattered over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, central Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Kerala”.
Forcast till June 20 says there will be fairly widespread rain/thundershowers over Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.