After record-breaking rains in July, the south west monsoon is likely to enter into a break phase in August, leading to the month seeing below normal showers in most parts of the country, India Meteorological Department said here on Monday.
Three out of four broad homogenous regions may experience below normal rainfall in August barring the east and north east, which in July recorded the third lowest rainfall since 1901.
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“By around August 5, the monsoon trough will shift to the Himalayan foothills leading to a reduction in rainfall in the western and central India. This is likely to continue at least till August 12. The rainfall has also come down to the southern peninsula and may remain so for some more time,” Mrutyanjay Mahapatra, director general IMD told DH.
In August, below normal rainfall was most likely over most parts of the southern peninsula and many areas of north west and central India, the met agency said.
The average rainfall for August is likely to be below normal or less than 94 per cent of the average precipitation of 254.9 mm. “It is most likely to be around 92 per cent of the average,” he said.
“After a long active spell, monsoon is entering into a weak or break phase in the next 2-3 weeks with the classic break like features. This is inevitable after an active phase for almost one month. August is prone for breaks,” said M Rajeevan, a veteran weather scientist and former secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The only region that can expect good rainfall in August is the east and north east that ended with 25 per cent deficiency through the monsoon season. Eastern and north-eastern India received 280.9 mm rainfall in July, which is the third lowest in the past 122 years after 2002 (234.8) and 1903 (249.5).
The western India was pounded with heavy showers with the region receiving its highest rainfall (258.6 mm) since 2001. Many areas in Himachal Pradesh and Haryana broke all time records, causing floods in the cities and inundating large tracts of lands for days.