Over 80 per cent of the new cases of Covid-19 in India have been caused due to the Delta variant which has now spread to 80 countries and the next wave will be driven by a variant to which a significant proportion of the population is susceptible, one of the government’s top health advisors has said.
“The B.1.617.2, a variant of Covid-19 known as the Delta variant, was first identified in October 2020 in India, and was primarily responsible for the second wave in the country, today accounting for over 80 per cent of new Covid-19 cases,” N K Arora, co-chair of the India Sars-Cov-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) said.
On whether future waves could be prevented, he said a virus begins infecting a part of the population, which is most susceptible and also exposed to the infection. “It diminishes after it successfully infects a large proportion of the population and strikes back when the immunity developed in the people post-natural infection fades,” he said.
“The cases may go up if a new, more infectious variant comes. In other words, the next wave will be driven by a virus variant to which a significant proportion of the population is susceptible,” Arora was quoted as saying in a health ministry statement.
He said the second wave was still going on and any future waves will be controlled and delayed if more and more people get vaccinated and most importantly, people follow Covid-appropriate behaviour effectively, especially till a substantial part of our population gets vaccinated.
According to Arora, 55-60 cases of the Delta Plus variant – AY.1 and AY.2 – have been detected so far across 11 states, including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh.
“AY.1 is also found in countries like Nepal, Portugal, Switzerland, Poland, Japan but AY.2 is less prevalent. The variant is still being studied for its transmissibility, virulence, and vaccine escape characteristics,” Arora said.
He said the Delta variant was also around 40-60 per cent more transmissible than its predecessor, Alpha variant, and has already spread to more than 80 countries, including the UK, the US and Singapore.
Arora said current vaccines were effective against the Delta variant as per the studies undertaken by ICMR on the issue.