It is the season of intrigue in Maharashtra. As summer bakes the land, political temperature too is rising in the western state, where words said and hints dropped have all combined put a question mark on the survival of the Eknath Shinde-led government.
Is Shinde, the man who pulled the rug from under Uddhav Thackeray, going to be history? Will NCP’s Ajit Pawar ditch his uncle Sharad Pawar, join hands with the BJP and become the next CM? Or is it going to be the turn of canny Devendra Fadnavis, the current deputy CM, to occupy the top executive post in the state?
These are the questions on the lips of the political class and the media as the state stares at another game of thrones.
With the Supreme Court expected to rule next month on the Shiv Sena split that led to Uddhav Thackeray getting dethroned, all the principal players—the two Pawars, Uddhav, Shinde, and Fadnavis—are fine-tuning their strategy.
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At stake for Shinde, who walked away with 40 of the 56 MLAs and was allotted the Sena name and symbol, is not just his post but his legitimacy as a leader, as it was his collusion with the BJP that brought down the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.
For Ajit, it provides another chance at realising his long-cherished desire to occupy the hot seat, which he reiterated again in Pune a few days ago, stating that he “wanted 100 per cent to be the CM”.
Split speculation
Rumours swirled a few weeks ago that Ajit was looking to engineer a split in the NCP by taking 40 MLAs with him after getting in touch with Fadnavis and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
Ajit, a four-time deputy CM, emphatically denied it after keeping mum for several days. The senior Pawar added to the mystery by not commenting at first and later held a meeting with Uddhav.
In the Shiv Sena (UBT) mouthpiece Saamna, Sanjay Raut offered some details on what was cooking behind the scenes.
Raut claimed in the article that the senior Pawar told them about pressure from central agencies on some of his party colleagues and that they could move anytime.
Days later, Pawar injected more intrigue by saying that he was not sure whether the MVA would remain in its present form until the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
No one in their right mind would hazard a guess on what the ambitious senior Pawar is planning.
Several believe the NCP patriarch may be smelling an opportunity for the MVA to return to power in case Shinde’s MLAs lose the case in the SC.
The posturing could also be the NCP’s bargaining tactic: it could eye the CM’s post and show Uddhav his place; or it could seek more seats in the Lok Sabha elections, which could mean Pawar getting a better shot at the PM post if the Opposition stands a chance.
But what if there is a subplot to this brewing potboiler?
Baramati has been the personal backyard of Pawar and his family for almost 55 years. There is a bitter succession battle in the Pawar household between daughter Supriya Sule, a Lok Sabha MP who represents Baramati, and Ajit, who represents the Baramati Assembly seat. Officially, the set line is that Supriya would be at the national level while Ajit would handle Maharashtra.
Pawar is inclined to anoint his daughter as the chief, but Ajit’s hold on the party is intact and could be a pain point. Some Maharashtra watchers do not rule out the possibility of the senior Pawar preparing the ground for Ajit to leave to cement his daughter’s position in the party.
What of the BJP? Fadnavis and his party did a fine job in cultivating Shinde, a grassroots man who is available 24x7; and he rewarded the saffron party by doing the unthinkable — splitting the Sena.
At present, the numbers seem comfortable for the BJP, even if MLAs are disqualified.
The party is in touch with a number of MLAs from the NCP and the Congress. But the biggest challenge for the Shinde-Fadnavis team would be their restive MLAs, as the Cabinet remains a 20-member team.
Uddhav’s managers are also on the prowl, looking for vulnerable MLAs.
Mumbai-based veteran political analyst Prakash Akolkar said parties and leaders may be giving out statements, but nothing is certain. “What is happening is a game of confusion,” said Akolkar. “All the leaders are trying to create an air of confusion and keep others in good humour. No one would like to hazard a guess on the Supreme Court judgement, particularly when the Constitution Bench is involved.”
But Raut, always with something sensational at the tip of his tongue, offered this: “The death warrant of this government has been issued. It is now to be decided who will sign it.”
Amid claims and counterclaims, one may yet see a denouement of this political drama soon after the Karnataka elections.