Throughout the first and second wave of the pandemic, Indian scientists have come together to address the crisis in multiple ways. Researchers in sciences and engineering have offered their expertise towards vaccine development, diagnostics and surveillance, developing medical devices (ventilators, oxygen production units, personal protective care equipment) innovating new sterilisation methods, developing antiviral supplements, modelling and simulating the pandemic.
Perhaps one of the best collective efforts has been the emergence of the group called Indian Scientists Response to Covid-19 (ISRC). This group includes researchers and scientists from a host of institutions like the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), Indian Institutes of Science, Education and Research (IISERs), Chennai Mathematical Institute, NIMHANS and the like.
To begin with, the ISRC laid emphasis on busting hoaxes and myths, while providing scientifically accurate information on the virus.
The team has also attempted to model the spread of the virus and came up with the epidemiological model called INDSCI-SIM. This is the first detailed, state-specific, epidemiological compartmental model for Covid-19 in India.
With INDSCI-SIM, one can compare the effects of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions — including different types of lockdowns, quarantining and expanded testing — in altering the trajectory of the pandemic. The model predicts the number of cases of mild, severe and critical illness within each intervention scenario.
In addition, the ISRC data team has also been tracking the spread of the epidemic and presenting the time series of some quantitative measures in the country, using publicly available data.
Sciences and engineering
What has been interesting is that several institutions have worked to actively bring out their solutions into the public domain, asking the industry and government to make use of them.
Some efforts worth mentioning include IIT Bombay repurposing nitrogen production units to oxygen production units, the IISc designing a medical grade oxygen generator and a ventilator within Rs 50,000 and IIT Kanpur rapidly developing and producing portable ventilators.
Another interesting effort saw a team of scientists from IISc, IIT Bombay and Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research working in the areas of fluid dynamics, chemical engineering and mechanical engineering come together to 'predict medical inventory, asymptomatics and lockdown effects'.
Unfortunately, this has been superseded by a different project and the data is no longer publicly available. Had this model been used by the government late last year, the current crisis of oxygen cylinders and ventilators in several hospitals across the country could have been averted.
Tracing the new variant
The vaccine task force co-chaired by Principal Scientific Adviser, Prof K Vijay Raghavan and Dr Vinod Paul, Member (Health), NITI Aayog took cognizance of the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 detected in September 2020 and reiterated the need for a common platform for harmonised protocols for virus surveillance, genome sequencing, and characterisation in India.
In response, the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) was established, primarily to build infrastructure across the country for genome sequencing, connect research outcomes to the clinical and epidemiological profile of patients and inform policy making for effective control of the pandemic.
The consortium, comprising 10 labs, will ascertain the status of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2 VUI 202012/01) in the country. As of April 20, 2021, the INSACOG had collected 19,092 samples and over 10,000 genomes were analysed. This is still only a fraction of the larger sample to be analysed and we have a very long way to go.
Prof Gautam Menon, one of the scientists working on modeling, says, "We provide model-based inputs to a number of state governments to aid their decision making. We have not, however, interacted directly with the central government on projections for the pandemic in India."
The scientists had given clear indications of the second wave. At best, they can provide advanced information or help facilitate decision-making, but it is the administration that has to make the decisions.
(The author is with Gubbi Labs, a research collective in Bengaluru)