The AIADMK's unstinting support for the controversial farm laws, the “neglect” of farmers by the BJP-led government at the Centre, and a lack of “proper relief” in the aftermath of Cyclone Gaja that ravaged the fertile Cauvery Delta region - these are some of the factors that could further help the DMK in its bastion of Central Tamil Nadu, which constitutes 46 Assembly segments across eight districts. Besides, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by T T V Dhinakaran could split the AIADMK votes in several constituencies in the region, especially in the Delta districts, further strengthening the DMK combine.
In districts like Cuddalore, and Ariyalur, the DMK and AIADMK are engaged in an intense neck and neck fight, thanks to the ruling party's alliance with the PMK. In Tiruchirappalli district, the DMK seems ahead of the AIADMK-BJP, while Health Minister C Vijayabaskar is literally walking the extra mile in Viramalali to romp home again.
Ministers walking the extra mile
While Food Minister R Kamaraj seems to be riding on “sympathy” factor for he was infected with Covid-19, Handlooms Minister O S Manian and AIADMK strongman R Vaithilingam are fighting uphill battle in Vedaranyam, and Orathanadu respectively. In a couple of coastal constituencies, the ruling party seems ahead, while odds are staked against it in many segments.
In 2016 elections, the AIADMK won 27 seats, leaving 19 to the DMK alliance, and with Left and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), who contested then as a separate entity, now back with the DMK, it will be an added advantage for the party.
While Left has considerable influence in the Delta region, the VCK will strengthen the alliance in Cuddalore, Perambalur, and Ariyalur. Add to these, the DMK's traditional votes in the region, which has been its bastion.
It is in the Cauvery Delta region where the AIADMK-BJP has a real problem, where many openly say they will not vote for AIADMK because of its alliance with the BJP. Minorities, especially Muslims, who voted for AIADMK in 2016 when it was helmed by late J Jayalalithaa, are likely to consolidate behind DMK due to a slew of factors, including the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019.
Dhinakaran's AMMK is also “strong” in many areas with political observers predicting that he would take away a chunk of the AIADMK votes.
Farmers upset with BJP
Farmers in the Delta region seem unforgiving the BJP and its leadership for not engaging them during their 100-day protest on the streets of Delhi in 2017. They also point out Prime Minister Narendra Modi not visiting the Delta after Cyclone Gaja left a trail of destruction across the region, uprooting lakhs of coconut trees.
“We were at the Prime Minister's doorstep in Delhi (in 2017) for 100 days. He (the PM) could have called us and engaged with us. Why? Are we not citizens of India? Not just this, the Centre never bothered to help Delta farmers when they lost everything during Cyclone Gaja. And now, the BJP has come out with three laws just to help corporates,” Veera Rajendran, a farmer in Tiruvaiyaru, told DH.
Many farmers whom DH spoke to in the Delta region said the farm laws will affect the community once it is implemented. “While we will not be affected immediately as we directly sell it to the government in Tamil Nadu, but the farmers will certainly get affected in the long run. We will be made to nod our heads to people with whom we sign agreements,” a farmer said.
Fully aware that farmers in the region are not happy, the ruling AIADMK took several steps to project itself as a “farmer-friendly” government after the humiliating loss in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The outreach began with announcing the fertile Cauvery Delta region as Protected Special Agriculture Zone to prevent implementation of oil exploration projects, and waiver of farm loans availed by farmers in cooperative banks.
Opinion split on farm loan waiver
However, the opinion on farm loan waiver is split. “More than 60 per cent of farmers avail loan from nationalised banks and only the remaining go to cooperative banks. And getting a farm loan from cooperative banks is not that easy. So, the loan waiver will not help all farmers,” another farmer explained.
P R Pandian, President of All Farmers’ Association, said only Rs 1,300 crore worth of farm loans availed by farmers in the Delta region has come under the scheme, while the western region has covered more than Rs 7,000 crore. “The loan waiver will not benefit the real farmers. The scheme was announced only with an eye on election,” he said.
Coconut farmers in Peravurnai and Pattukkottai in Thanjavur district complain that they have not received the Cyclone Gaja relief “in full.” “While 1.25 crore coconut trees were uprooted, farmers have received compensation only for 65 lakh trees after two-and-a-half years. And the compensation was very less,” a coconut farmer said.
Pandian was explicit in saying that majority of the votes against BJP and AIADMK will go to the DMK.
“Not just ignoring the farm protests, and not visiting during Gaja, the BJP has been acting against the interests of the farmers in the Delta by overtly siding with Karnataka. The AIADMK also sided with the BJP on many occasions, especially in defending the farm laws. Farmers' anti-BJP stance will take away the votes from AIADMK and give it to the DMK alliance,” he added.