When Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) chief TTV Dhinakaran contested the 2017 bypoll in R K Nagar assembly constituency, he not just won the seat held twice by late J Jayalalithaa, but his margin surpassed that of the late Chief Minister.
Dhinakaran and AMMK firmly believe it was his charisma that helped him trounce the ruling AIADMK and Opposition DMK. And now the AMMK chief wants to repeat the R K Nagar magic in Kovilpatti, the constituency known for its mouth-watering kadalai mittai (peanut candy) and cottage industries that produce match sticks.
It may not be an easy task to win this southern Tamil Nadu constituency as Dhinakaran is seen as an outsider, albeit for now. His main rivals are Information Minister C Kadambur Raju (AIADMK) and K Srinivasan (CPI-M) from the DMK alliance. MNM has fielded K Kathiravan, and Naam Tamizhar Katchi's candidate is M Gomathi.
Both AIADMK and CPI-M candidates project themselves as “sons of the soil” and brand Dhinakaran as a rank outsider.
There is a reason for Dhinakaran to shift from R K Nagar to far-away Kovilpatti – he could have contested somewhere in Theni from where he was once elected to Lok Sabha – the AMMK led by him had scored 19,478 votes in this assembly segment in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and his party is now ruling the Kayathar panchayat union.
Besides, he is banking on his party colleague, SVSP Manickaraja, who holds influence among the Mukulathors, the community to which Dhinakaran also belongs, to emerge victorious from this seat. Apart from Mukulathors, Naickers and Nadars form a major chunk of voters in the constituency. Both Raju and Srinivasan are Naickers.
Not just the community and a chunk of AIADMK votes, Dhinakaran and his AMMK believe his charisma will help him win Kovilpatti seat. “He is a known figure, and he connects with people easily. People may now feel he is an outsider, but once he begins his campaign here, things will change,” one of TTV's supporters told DH.
Srinivasan, on the other hand, has entered the fray with the hope that his work in Kovilpatti for the past four decades, including as a ward councillor twice, and the alliance strength would ensure that he enters Fort St. George, the seat of power of Tamil Nadu.
On his part, Raju believes his 10-year long “good record” will help him win the seat for the third time. “The constituency has attained star status because of me, not due to Dhinakaran. I have served the people for 10 years now and everyone here likes me for the work I have done. As far as Dhinakaran, he was misled by his people to contest here. He will not win Kovilpatti,” Raju said.
The constituency has long been a bastion of the Communist Party of India and this is the first time the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is entering the fray.
Srinivasan has reasons to bank on alliance arithmetic – Raju won the seat in 2016 by a slender margin of 428 votes against DMK's nominee. Also, the MDMK, which was part of the People's Welfare Alliance (PWA), scored 28,137 votes in the seat. MDMK and Left parties are now part of the DMK front.
Add to this, MDMK's influence in the constituency, thanks to Vaiko hailing from this region. Also, a split in AIADMK votes is inevitable as its splinter group AMMK will take away a chunk, and Dhinakaran himself is the candidate. While this will hurt Raju, it might help Srinivasan.
“Community or money will not speak as far as Kovilpatti is concerned. It is only the work that will bring votes. People believe I can be their voice in the Tamil Nadu Assembly. The alliance partners are working for my victory, and I will win this seat,” Srinivasan told DH.
Apart from caste equations, people in the constituency want better roads, uninterrupted water supply, and other infrastructure needs. Also, the traditional match sticks industry stares at an existential crisis with prices of raw materials shooting up, and factories downing their shutters.
“Whoever wins from here should focus on ensuring the decades-old match sticks industry survives. We are dependent only on the industry to eke out a living. We need a solution to keep the industry running,” Arumugam, a labourer, told DH.
Shanmugam, who runs a bakery in Kovilpatti town, said it was difficult to predict who will emerge victorious in the segment. “Both Raju and Srinivasan are locals. People feel it will be easy to approach them, but the same is not the case with Dhinakaran. He is from Chennai, and he will not stay here. But nothing can be said now as the polling day is a fortnight away. Anything can happen,” he said.
Kovilpatti Assembly Constituency
2016 winner: C Kadambur Raju (AIADMK)
2016 runner-up: A Subramanian (DMK)
Margin: 428 votes
2021 Candidates
TTV Dhinakaran (AMMK)
C Kadambur Raju (AIADMK)
K Srinivasan (CPIM)
K Kathiravan (MNM)
Electorate (2021): 2,64,900 votes