Battle lines are drawn for Tamil Nadu's epic election on April 6. The state will witness an intense five-cornered contest to elect its 16th Assembly, with new players entering the field and threatening to play the spoiler in many constituencies.
Besides the two major alliances led by ruling AIADMK, and principal Opposition DMK, T T V Dhinakaran's Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) and actor Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) have also stitched together alliances. And Tamil nationalist party, Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), has entered the fray on its own.
There are few other marginal players too – Puthiya Tamizhagam of Dr K Krishnasamy and a new outfit launched by former bureaucrat U Sagayam.
While MNM projects itself as a “change agent”, the NTK wants to establish the “real rule” of Tamils in Tamil Nadu. For AMMK, the agenda is to “retrieve” its parent party, AIADMK.
Though the fight is expected to narrow down between AIADMK and DMK in most constituencies, the other three players, especially AMMK which has tied up with DMDK of actor Vijayakant, cannot be taken for granted. DMDK walked out of the AIADMK-BJP alliance last week alleging “ill-treatment.”
The combined vote share of AMMK, MNM, and NTK – all three contested on their own – in the 2019 Lok Sabha election is 12.85 per cent. AMMK scored 5.25 per cent, NTK 3.88 per cent, and MNM 3.72 per cent. The NTK, launched by actor Seeman in the aftermath of the 2009 civil war in Sri Lanka, has been making inroads in several parts of the state but has never won any seat.
Though these parties are not expected to make much of an impact in many seats, they might play the spoiler in several constituencies. AMMK and MNM have fielded their leaders – Dhinakaran and Kamal Haasan – in places which they consider as strongholds – with the hope that the move would have a rippling effect in nearby constituencies.
“MNM and NTK will certainly take away some votes. MNM will get votes in urban areas like Chennai, Coimbatore, and Madurai. But I doubt whether they can make any impact in rural areas. Seeman's party will have a much lesser impact this time and he is not even a draw,” Prof Ramu Manivannan, Head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, told DH.
However, he feels AMMK will be able to determine the outcome in a few constituencies, especially in the Southern region where Dhinakaran might get support from his community. “Dhinakaran is fighting the enemy within. His party candidates might determine the outcome in many places. The AIADMK votes would get split with Dhinakaran taking away a chunk of it,” he added.
Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh has a different take. “It is a big mystery whose votes the three combines are going to take. Whether they will split AIADMK votes alone or eat into the DMK votes as well is the question. The outcome of this election will set new standards for measuring public opinion in Tamil Nadu,” Singh told DH.