Voters in West Bengal, Kerala and Assam are likely to give one more chance to the ruling coalition in the upcoming Assembly polls, while the Opposition in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are probably on their way to capture power, according to a new opinion poll.
The opinion poll by ABP-C Voter gives Bengal to Trinamool Congress, Kerala to CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and Assam to BJP. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led front is likely to oust AIADMK, which has allied with the BJP, while in Puducherry where Congress lost the government a couple of days ago, BJP-AIADMK may romp home comfortably.
If the opinion polls come true, it will be bad news for Congress as it will have no governments in South India while the CPI(M) will manage to hold on to its last bastion for one more time.
Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress still has an edge over the BJP, which is attempting to overthrow the ruling regime and expand its footprint in eastern India.
According to the opinion poll, Trinamool is likely to win 148-164 seats in the 294-member Assembly where the half-way mark is 147. Compared to the January 18 opinion poll by the same team, the numbers for Trinamool were 154-162.
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The BJP, the latest poll said, could win 92-108 as against 98-106 in the polls one and a half months ago. Congress and the Left combine are likely to win only 31-39 seats and in case of a hung assembly would favour the Trinamool. Trinamool had won 211 seats in the 2016 polls while BJP had won three. Congress won 44 while the CPI(M) had won 26.
It is good news for the Left in Kerala, the only state where it is in power, as it is predicted to win 83-91 seats in a House of 140 MLAs. The Congress-led United Democratic Front could win 47-55, BJP 0-2 and Others 0-2. In the 2016 polls, LDF had won 91, UDF 47, BJP 1 and Independent 1.
The Congress has been counting on Kerala with former Congress president Rahul Gandhi focussing more on the state where it has a chance of returning to power. However, the local polls were not in its favour and it had added to the confidence of the LDF.
Tamil Nadu could see the return of the DMK-led alliance, which has Congress and the Left as its allies among others, trouncing the AIADMK-BJP coalition. The DMK coalition is likely to win 154-162 seats in an Assembly of 234 while AIADMK-BJP will have to settle for 58-55. Others, including Kamal Hasan's Makkal Neethi Maiam, may win 8-20 seats.
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BJP-AIADMK may open its account in Puducherry this time with the opinion poll predicting 17-21 seats while Congress may settle at 8-12 seats and others 1-3. Earlier this week, Congress lost the government after around half-a-dozen of its MLAs resigned from the party. Just before facing the confidence vote, it resigned as Chief Minister V Narayanasamy walked out of the House.
The January opinion poll had shown a neck-and-neck race in Puducherry but the changed political scenario gives BJP and its allies a better prospect.
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In the 125-member Assam, BJP is predicted to return to power with 68-76 seats while Congress and its allies will have to settle for the Opposition slot for another term with 43-51 seats. Others may win 5-10 seats.
Opinion Polls:
West Bengal
TMC 148-164
BJP 92-108
Cong+Left+ 31-39
Tamil Nadu - 234 seats
AIADMK-BJP: 58-66
DMK+Cong+Left: 154-162
Others: 8-20
Kerala - 140 seats
LDF: 83-91
UDF: 47-55
BJP: 0-2
OTH: 0-2
Assam - 126 seats
BJP 68-76
Congress 43-51
Others 5-10
Puducherry - 30 seats
BJP+AIADMK: 17-21
Congress+: 8-12
Others: 1-3