The Indian Secular Front (ISF) floated by Muslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui is likely to become a cause of concern for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in South 24 Parganas district, a bastion of the ruling party in West Bengal.
Despite the BJP’s rise in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC led in all of the 31 Assembly constituencies in the district. It also won 29 out of the 31 seats in the district in the 2016 Assembly elections.
However, the ISF may make it difficult for the TMC to maintain its electoral dominance in the district, especially in constituencies with a large Muslim population.
Muslim voters are the determining factor in 11 Assembly constituencies in the district. According to the 2011 Census, Muslims comprise 35.57% of the district’s population.
Considering Siddiqui’s popularity among a considerable section of Muslims in the district, it looks like the ISF may eat into the TMC’s minority support base. Moreover, the emergence of the ISF may lead to a consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the BJP.
For instance, the Bhangar Assembly constituency, which has a nearly 70% Muslim population, presents a tricky situation to the TMC. It was in Bhangar that, in late 2019, Siddiqui started to show his hold over the Muslims in the district. Despite winning the seat in 2016, the TMC is plagued with infighting in Bhangar with at least six opposing factions.
Locals said that in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC led in Bhangar with 68.40% votes mainly because of the consolidation of Muslim votes against the BJP. But this time, with the ISF fielding its chairperson Naushad Siddiqui from Bhangar, it is likely to make a dent in the TMC’s Muslim votes.
“It's not just South 24 Parganas, but in several parts of the state. The TMC will be no match to the ISF. Its days of exploiting Muslims as a vote bank are over,” Naushad told DH.
Although the ISF does not have much organizational presence in the Canning East constituency in the district which has a Muslim population of about 60%, Siddiqui’s entry into politics has proven to be a shot in the arm for the CPI(M). The Left Front's cadre in the constituency considers Siddiqui to be the person who can give a befitting response to the TMC and its sitting MLA Saokat Molla’s alleged strong-arm tactics. The ISF, an alliance partner of the Left Front and the Congress, is contesting in 26 seats.
A similar situation is prevailing in the minority-dominated constituencies of Magrahat East and Magrahat West both of which have more than 50% Muslim population.
As for the Canning West seat, which has a Hindu population of about 47% and a Muslim population of about 35%, Siddiqui’s influence seems to be leading towards a consolidation of Hindu votes which may help the BJP in the Assembly elections.
Four seats of South 24 Parganas went to polls in the second phase while 16 and 11 seats will go to polls in the third and fourth phase on April 6 and April 10 respectively.