Political activity has been shifting gears in what is otherwise known as the sleepy state of Rajasthan. Communal violence broke out, and a curfew was imposed last week in Karauli when a slogan-shouting motorcycle rally of Hindu youth passing through a Muslim dominated area was attacked with stones from a nearby mosque. In retaliatory action, several shops and houses were gutted and destroyed. The incident had a spinoff effect, with affiliate organisations of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) deciding to organise similar motorcycle "yatras" across the state on Ram Navami day on Sunday.
In the just-concluded session of the Rajasthan Assembly, the opposition BJP members were seen haranguing Minorities Affairs Minister Saleh Mohammed with charges that he was encouraging "conversions of Hindus". Mohammed, an MLA from Pokhran, is also the Indian representative of the Pakistan-based Pir Pagaro sect after the death of his father, Ghazi Fakir. In all recent elections, the BJP election campaigns have centred around theories that support for the Congress was being dictated by Pakistan.
In past days, other significant developments have taken place. For instance, the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government issued, and hastily amended, an order instructing district collectors to provide uninterrupted power supply for at least 14 hours/day during the ongoing Ramadan season. After senior BJP leader, former chief minister Vasundhara Raje called out the Gehlot government on "Muslim appeasement" (as Hindus were also fasting during the Navratra), the Rajasthan government altered the order to clarify that power supply must be ensured during the "religious season."
Meanwhile, in bordering areas of Jodhpur and Bikaner, there has been renewed political activity on the long-pending demands for the grant of Indian citizenship to "persecuted minorities" from Pakistan, who have been living as refugees in India. Social media platforms have also debated unusual or even wild political theories. There has been continuing talk, for instance, on the probability that big political names such as Sachin Pilot of the Congress and Hanuman Beniwal of the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party will be recruited by Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. Other theories are that senior BJP leader and former chief minister Vasundhara Raje will be pulled out of state politics and given a ceremonial post in the central government. In short, Rajasthan, where Assembly elections are scheduled next year, has been gathering communal overtones. The climate also seems to ripen towards a new reconfiguration of political forces.
Changing Rajasthan
The loss of the Rajasthan Assembly in 2018, alongside that of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, months before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, had come as a disaster for the saffron party. The BJP compensated by winning 25 of Rajasthan's 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 against 28 of the 29 seats of Madhya Pradesh and nine of the 11 parliamentary seats of Chhattisgarh. Learning from past mistakes, the BJP strategists are putting their best foot forward this time to win the Rajasthan Assembly (as also the Hindi speaking states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) to provide for a more comfortable re-run for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Rajasthan, in any case, has demonstrated a "revolving door" trend since 1998, with the incumbent government being voted out after every five years. By that logic, it is the BJP's turn in 2023. But the BJP is circumspect - as is the Congress -because of two factors: First, the threats of the possible emergence of the AAP as a third pole of what has essentially remained a situation of bipolar politics between the Congress and the BJP. It is early days yet for the AAP in Rajasthan. But if the party performs well in this year's Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan could well come within its radar.
Also Read — Gehlot targets Shekhawat over Rajasthan canal project, questions his 'standing' before PM Modi
Second, state politics has also been juggled up because of the virtual decimation of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - as demonstrated by the poll results this year in Uttar Pradesh. The BSP has had a marginal presence in the Rajasthan Assembly in past years but has consistently been getting a vote share between 3-6 per cent. With Mayawati being rendered a non-player, where will the BSP votes go? The tribal votes, traditionally with the Congress, have been shifting too. In the previous 2018 elections, tribal votes were divided between the Congress, the BJP and Chhotubhai Vasava's Bhartiya Tribal Party. Therefore, both the mainstream parties realise that the format of conventional politics might not apply on this occasion.
Politics of freebies
If the BJP has been building a political constituency out of the "labharthi" (beneficiaries of central government schemes) and the AAP has been attempting to expand the 'Delhi model' of governance, can the Ashok Gehlot government of Rajasthan remain far behind?
In this year's budget, Gehlot opened the purse strings: The launch of the Old Pension Scheme for state government employees; Rs 800 crore allocation for the Indira Gandhi Urban Employment Guarantee Scheme; increased health cover under the Chiranjivi Health Insurance Scheme; 50 units of free electricity to those using 100 units and the announcement of a first separate agriculture budget for the state.
The question, however, remains: Can the Congress retain Rajasthan based on populism alone? Four hundred Congress block units in the state are today headless, while in the state's 33 districts, the party has appointed district presidents in only 19. District committees have been set up, but members have not been appointed. Half of the posts in the Pradesh Congress committee are vacant. Members or heads of various district-level committees, such as the 20 point programme implementation committee, jail committee or vigilance committees, have not been appointed.
With the cadre building exercise having been ignored by the Congress, party workers are indifferent to the task of propagating the state government's welfare schemes. Being preoccupied with the challenges of saving his government, the chief minister has extended full powers to MLAs at the exclusion of party workers. "Resentment and dissatisfaction, therefore, has been building up amongst party workers," said Ashfaq Kayamkhani, Sikar-based social activist. At the other end of the spectrum, BJP workers have promptly engaged themselves in the task of creating booth level committees, and 'Panna Pramukhs' are being appointed. The BJP has also launched an aggressive membership drive in the state.
The qualitative difference
If it is Ashok Gehlot versus Sachin Pilot in the Congress, it is a situation of Vasundhara Raje versus eleven others in the BJP. The difference is this: Factionalism in the BJP is most likely to get papered over when it comes to the crunch; the differences within the Congress are likely to remain. Sachin Pilot, largely credited for the Congress win in Rajasthan in 2018, met party leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Friday amidst reports that he was being considered for an important organisational role in the state. Even if Pilot is re-appointed as state PCC chief, it is unlikely that he will get a free hand in conceptualising party strategies or choosing candidates. The BJP, on the other hand, has been pursuing a clear agenda.
(Srinand Jha is a journalist based in Delhi)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors' own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
Watch the latest DH Videos here: