Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States this week is a milestone in our relationship with that country. In 2009, when President Barack Obama described the India-US relationship as the “defining relationship of the 21st century”, it was seen as a bit exaggerated in view of America’s other global priorities. However, today, with US-China relations in serious difficulty, Russia mired in war, and the European Union and Japan stuck in feeble economic growth, India has acquired a prominent position in world politics, aided by its steady growth and astute diplomacy. The outcome of Prime Minister Modi’s meetings with President Joe Biden indicate that both sides now see the opportunity of building that defining relationship.
The Joint Statement issued after the official engagements on June 22 runs into 58 paragraphs and includes every aspect of relations, from strategic convergence and defence to travel and visas! It will be carefully scrutinised in world capitals and will be extensively commented on as the details emerge.
The grand ceremonies and the substantive outcomes of the visit indicate that the bilateral relationship has become a top priority for both countries. Both are playing the long game. The US strategic objective is broadly the same as that which led to the India-US civil nuclear agreement under former PM Manmohan Singh and the step-by-step upgradation of defence ties over the last two decades – namely that a powerful, developed, democratic India can be a balancing force in Asia -- and beyond -- and is in America’s global interest. India finds considerable convergence of strategic interests with the US in the Indo-Pacific and West Asia; and American technology and investments can help drive India’s transformation.
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It is clear that both leaders invested time and effort and took ownership of the visit to make it a success. The earlier work done together in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for prosperity set the stage for intensive negotiations leading to what is now announced as a Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.
The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) aims to bring together government, business and academia in the two countries to develop cutting-edge technologies, including quantum technologies, advanced computing, cybersecurity, green technologies etc. An MoU on semiconductor supply chains and innovation partnership, with investments into India and skilling of up to 60,000 engineers in our country, was agreed. Space cooperation will be taken forward with India joining in human spaceflight preparations pursuant to a joint mission to the International Space Station.
In the defence field, the steady upgrading of our ties will be accelerated. Maritime security cooperation will include underwater domain awareness cooperation. India will also extend facilities for maintenance and repair hubs for US naval assets in the region. These steps will add significance to our cooperation for the Indo-Pacific region.
Of more lasting significance is the roadmap agreed for defence industrial cooperation. Apart from the MoU for General Electric and HAL to produce GE F-414 jet engines for the Tejas Mk 2 fighters in India, a Defence Acceleration Ecosystem (IndusX) will help private sector companies take up joint defence technology innovation and co-production.
The two countries will also collaborate on clean energy transition, a high priority in view of our commitments in global climate change accords. This extends beyond solar and wind energy, storage technologies, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen, to critical minerals and supply chains.
Trade and investment are also key features of the partnership. While no target was set for trade -- currently at $190 billion -- the potential was highlighted with references to Air India buying 200 Boeing aircraft! Indian leaders believe that trade can be raised to $500 billion in a decade as India is the fastest growing large economy and capable of being at the centre of a network of global supply chains if it builds infrastructure and gets its regulatory act together.
The references to international political issues in the joint statement, including US support for India’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council, Myanmar, North Korea, terrorism, Afghanistan, etc., come after the detailed announcements on technology and economic issues and are fairly anodyne. It does seem that the US effort is to make India a key partner in a global geo-economic strategy rather than in an overtly geopolitical one. This is logical given that its strategic competition with China is as much economic and technological as politico-military. Geo-economic partnership works well for India’s policy of retaining strategic autonomy, and stabilising ties with China.
As always, the visit was preceded by extremely hard preparatory work, and it will have to be followed up intensely so that inertia, lobbies, and countervailing international forces do not slow the upward trajectory. Caustic comments have appeared in China’s Global Times that “The US geopolitical calculation is doomed to fail because China’s position in global supply chains cannot be replaced by India or other countries.”
In the past, US investments and provision of market access helped in the resurgence of Japan and Korea, and in the last three decades, the meteoric rise of China (which Global Times forgot to mention). As the US seeks to rebuild its domestic industrial and economic base, it is no longer open to liberalisation of access to its market. However, sharing technology and investments are seen as the main engines of an advanced US-India relationship in the decade ahead (“techade”) which could be transformational. The US opening presents an opportunity that we should not miss.
(The writer is a former Foreign Secretary of India)