As India fights a two-pronged battle against Covid-19 internally and serious Chinese transgressions along the border in Eastern Ladakh, a Catch 22 situation stares it in the face on another front. Though Delhi has followed a consistent friendly policy towards impoverished and fratricidal violence-afflicted Afghanistan over the last two decades, India has to decide -- sooner than later -- as to its stand toward the emerging power arrangement in Kabul that will involve the medieval-minded and fundamentalist Taliban.
With the changing geopolitical dynamic in the land of the Hindu Kush, the jury is still out in India on what its Afghanistan policy should be. Surprisingly, many former diplomats and geopolitical analysts opine that India must respond to the changed situation in Afghanistan and not stick to its old stance of not talking to the Taliban. Accordingly, they suggest that India open up channels of communication with them. Notwithstanding the Taliban's past record of grave and recurrent violence against their own people, abject cruelty towards women, their patronising of the drug culture and their utter disdain for democratic and civil norms, our experts are rooting for India to change its stance toward it! The close nexus between the Taliban and its mentor, Pakistan's ISI, appears to be brushed aside at the altar of expedient geopolitics.
These experts say that for years, India has been marginalised in Afghanistan and that we have ceded space to Pakistan. It is worth noting that the latter's old quest for strategic space in Afghanistan is a dead concept now, though its machinations to have a pliant regime in Kabul persist. It is well accepted that India's consistent policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of Afghanistan while supporting it on peace and development have ensured for India the respect of the Afghan people. India is the largest regional donor in Afghanistan, with its humanitarian support package of $3 billion for power, civil infrastructure projects, hospitals, educational institutions, the Salma Dam and the Afghan parliament building, apart from medical aid this year to combat Covid-19, besides the assurance to send 75,000 tonnes of wheat this year. Delhi thus has to chart an Afghanistan policy that combines its national interest and strategic clarity while not discarding adherence to human values which are characteristic of an ancient, civilised nation like India.
Pakistan, which has been a consistent mischief-maker in Afghanistan, will naturally like to pursue its own interests and thus mentor the Afghan Taliban till the latter continues to support its nefarious tactical goals. Pakistan, following its traditional and myopic strategy to keep India out of the reckoning in Afghan affairs, is currently endeavouring to show to the US and other stakeholders its supposed influence with the Taliban.
Be that as it may, Pakistan is trying to mend fences with the Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul and has just hosted Afghan leader Abdullah Abdullah in Islamabad. Abdullah, though a political rival of President Ghani, is the Chairman of the Afghanistan High Council for National Reconciliation and is engaged in the ongoing talks with the Taliban in Doha.
On the other hand, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is also likely to visit Kabul in the coming weeks. Contrary to Pakistan's policy over the last few years of supporting the withdrawal of US and foreign troops from Afghanistan, Imran Khan has recently stated that a "hasty international withdrawal from Afghanistan would be unwise" and no early timelines should be fixed for the withdrawal of US troops. There has to be something more than meets the eye for this U-turn.
Meanwhile, Abdullah, during his recent visit to Delhi and his meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, foreign minister S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval, conveyed that the Afghan establishment will have no problem if India opens up negotiations with the Taliban while India reiterated its support for a democratic dispensation in Kabul.
The ongoing talks in Doha between the US interlocutors, Taliban and the Afghan government do not appear to be progressing as expected due to Taliban intransigence. The Taliban, meanwhile, continues with its gruesomely violent activities inside Afghanistan. It is understood that the Taliban will not agree to any ceasefire till a political settlement agreeable to them has been formalised.
Foreign minister Jaishankar had addressed the Doha talks by video, reiterating the Indian stand that any negotiations and agreement should be "Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled." He had emphasised that whatever agreement is reached there must ensure that Afghan soil will not be used for any anti-India activities.
In deciding its future Afghan policy, Delhi must never forget the Taliban's past record of violence, extremism and medieval tenets, and its abject cruelty. India must prevail upon the US to sort out the mess in Afghanistan before it makes what may turn out into an inglorious exit. Delhi must also take the lead to get Russia and Iran on board to help arrive at a peaceful solution to the Afghan conundrum. It must do whatever possible, without putting any 'boots on the ground' to support and sustain a democratic government in Afghanistan. All players must strive for a ‘National Unity’ government in Kabul and the UN could consider deploying a strong international peace enforcing force.
The world community must not forget that Afghanistan was where the Global War on Terror was launched nearly 20 years ago and it remains a basket case. As a regional power, India must take the initiative to help stabilise a nation with which it has had civilizational links and which remains of significant strategic importance to us.
(The writer was the first chief, Defence Intelligence Agency, and deputy chief, Integrated Defence Staff)