PM Narendra Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
Credit: PTI Photos
The results of four of the five assembly elections show that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is an electioneering machine which the Congress and the other political parties in the opposition just cannot match.
Trends in Madhya Pradesh suggest that the BJP has yet again beaten anti-incumbency. The leads from Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh show that the BJP will topple the Congress governments in these states. The lone victory for the Congress, and an important one at it, is in Telangana where the party has displaced K C Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) which has been in power since 2014.
A few months back none would have thought of this result; it shows how election campaigns can change the fortunes of parties. While the Congress’ intense campaigns paid off in Telangana, it dropped the ball in the other three states where the BJP pulled out all the stops.
An agile BJP
For the BJP the victory is a testament to how agile the national party is, irrespective of the fact that it is heavily controlled by the central leadership. It shows how quick the leadership is to change its strategy when the tide is not in its favour. This was seen in how Shivraj Singh Chouhan, after being initially sidelined, was brought to the centre of the campaign in Madhya Pradesh, and in how a truce was struck with the disgruntled leaders in Rajasthan.
For now, it appears that the Congress’ promise for a caste census has not resonated with the Hindi heartland voters. This is good news for the BJP. The results also show that the BJP has locked in a voter base that is ideologically wedded to the party — and the Congress cannot win them over by mimicking the BJP.
Complacent Congress
The Congress’ performance in Telangana is remarkable — from less than seven MLAs in the outgoing house, it is now coming to power on its own — but this is overshadowed by the defeat in the other three states. Prima facie the Ashok Gehlot-Sachin Pilot rivalry has cost the party in Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Congress appears to have been complacent. Unlike the BJP, which has proved it time and again, the Congress has yet to show that it can beat anti-incumbency.
If the Karnataka assembly election results were hailed as the victory of party president Mallikarjun Kharge, these results must scrutinise his presidency and corrective measures need to be taken. For starters, the Congress must consider further empowering the youth in the party. It has clearly paid the price in Rajasthan.
Effects on 2024 polls
To extrapolate inferences from the assembly verdict and predict the 2024 general elections is a mistake because the factors at play here are different. Let’s look at the three Hindi-heartland states the BJP won: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. In 2018, the BJP lost the assembly polls in all three states, and yet went on to win an impressive 61 of the 65 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections. Today’s win might give the BJP a morale boost as it goes into the 2024 general elections, but the party has shown in 2019 that it can do even without it.
Future of I.N.D.I.A.
News reports suggest that Kharge has called for an I.N.D.I.A. alliance meeting on December 6 in Delhi. The assembly election results were bound to affect the alliance; what is now likely to take place is that a crestfallen Congress, which would have been in a better bargaining position had it won more states, will now be more amiable to seat-sharing discussions with other alliance members. The BJP’s 3-1 win makes the I.N.D.I.A. alliance even more important given that it aims to defeat the ruling party.
Looking from a long-term perspective, the Congress’ victory in Telangana could be good news for the BJP as well. The BJP’s track record against the Congress is much better than its performance against regional parties. One expects the BJP to be more vocal in Telangana politics now that the Congress will be in power there.
Finally, the assembly results will further enhance the tall image and cult-like following of Prime Minister Narendra Modi; and that’s more bad news for the Opposition.
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.