Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar during the gathering of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) workers and office-bearers ahead of Maharashtra Assembly elections, in Mumbai, Friday, Aug. 16, 2024.
Credit: PTI Photo
The complete rout of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance in Maharashtra has many messages embedded in it. First and foremost, it is a defeat of the old ‘Political Elites’ — the traditional dynasties of Indian politics, the spectrum extending from national to state parties.
The Congress that took its time on every political decision relevant to Maharashtra, appeared to have been sluggish in front of the ‘lean and mean’ Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), determined to hang in there, be it through schemes, cadre outreach, clarity of purpose, and sheer financial clout.
The Congress will, however, survive as a national party that does well when in alliance with strong state players such as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in Jharkhand.
This result, however, creates an existential crisis for the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founded by Sharad Pawar. The defeat of Shiv Sena(UBT) creates a new political model in India, where a family run party is successfully taken over by an outsider who prevails over the dynasts who run the parent party.
This is the first time such an operation has succeeded in the long game of Indian politics. Just imagine someone taking over the party, hypothetically, from the Nehru-Gandhi family, the Yadav dynasties of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, or even the descendants of K Karunanidhi, the founder of Tamil Nadu’s ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam? It’s inconceivable but it has happened in Maharashtra.
If there is one star in this mandate, besides the anonymous RSS worker, it is Chief Minister Eknath Shinde who broke the Shiv Sena. He can now legitimately claim to be the real Shiv Sena. His is the son of the soil story, a self-made individual who tells the tale of rising from being an autorickshaw driver to chief minister of a state that sends the second largest contingent of MPs to Lok Sabha and has the big metro of Mumbai.
What has happened in Maharashtra should evoke some apprehension in all the family-run parties across India — especially if they are badly run by an inefficient and entitled second generation.
That is because this mandate also raises the fundamental conundrum that the voters of Maharashtra have answered: first, when you stand for nothing beyond your own honour, prestige and, thereby, clout of the family, why should people not settle for the side that’s working so hard to stay in power that it delivered direct cash benefits into the accounts of crores of women?
The campaign of Gaddar (traitor) pushed by the Uddhav Sena flopped badly as Shinde’s humble origins worked for him as did his accessibility and known capacity for hard work. The real icing on the cake was, of course, the direct cash transfers to over 2.5 crore women.
Likewise, veteran Sharad Pawar, founder of the NCP, crashed in what he had said would be his last election. It’s not clear what direction he can move in to ensure the future of his daughter and MP Supriya Sule and other members of his family. Nephew Ajit Pawar who had broken the parent party, posted a far more convincing verdict than his dismal show in the Lok Sabha polls. There is talk of what remains of the party either being absorbed in the Congress or ceasing to exist if not absorbed by the Ajit Pawar faction. The NCP is fundamentally a party of entrenched interests, so if those are protected, they can go anywhere.
Finally, a word on the BJP that is always ready to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. What this mandate shows is that the politics of ruthless splitting of opponents, using financial clout and the Enforcement Directorate, and building up oligarchs such as Gautam Adani, are not real issues with the people if they see some advantage for themselves such as that in direct cash transfers. What ruthlessness also achieves, when confronted by slow decision making on the part of the Opposition, is the people’s perception that perhaps the alternate does not even have the capacity to defeat those who are in power (by hook or by crook).
Although the BJP says this is a victory of the slogan ‘Ek Hai To Safe Hai’ (seen as dog whistling about minorities), it’s actually their more adept social engineering among the OBCs and even a section of the Marathas and the Dalits that helped it come up slowly from the ground into what appears to have been a gathering storm in Maharashtra. Of course, the RSS worked very hard on this social project unlike its sluggish approach in the Lok Sabha polls.
What’s happened, therefore, is that in the crucial state of Maharashtra, the BJP and its allies have found their stride, while the Congress and its allies have lost their mojo. Jharkhand is a saving grace for the Congress, but that’s also due to a regional party, the JMM, leading the way.
(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author).
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
Maharashtra Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here
Jharkhand Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here
Bypoll 2024 results | Check Karnataka results here
Assembly Elections 2024 | The Maharashtra Assembly polls took place against the backdrop of a fractured political landscape in the western state where the Shiv Sena and NCP went up against the Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar factions, even as the BJP and Congress tried to make their mark. Maha Yuti are currently comfortably poised to win. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the JMM faced a challenge after Hemant Soren's arrest and Champai, a longstanding party member, joining the BJP, but look set to retain power with its I.N.D.I.A. allies. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.
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