Regional parties are again getting restive in the North East. One recalls the caustic remark of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) leading strategist of the last decade, the late Arun Jaitley, that regional parties are "tried, tested and failed" forces. Few would have disputed the assertion at the national level in 2014 and the subsequent Assembly polls to states such as Uttar Pradesh and even the 2019 parliamentary polls.
Yet, by 2021-22, India's democracy has again opened opportunities for these forces. Depending on what suits these regional entities, some would say it is yet another chance to play up their anti-BJP and anti-Congress politics on their sleeves.
Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress retaining power in West Bengal after a fiercely fought contest against the BJP, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) winning in Tamil Nadu in May 2021 has reinvigorated the process. It has come as the Congress continues to decline. For example, it scored zero in Bengal.
Regional parties, particularly those in the North Eastern states, believe the Congress cannot fight the robust electoral juggernaut of the BJP; hence, they need to strengthen their own hands.
"The Congress would struggle to revive both in the North East and at the national level. As was seen in Manipur, the BJP is treading a path of use and throw of regional partners. The important point is that merely Narendra Modi's charisma cannot help the saffron outfit sail through any longer. Local candidates, local conditions, and regional issues and aspirations matter in states like Nagaland and Meghalaya," says Dilip Sharma, executive editor with the daily Nagaland Page.
The recent political developments in Nagaland bear out the aptness of Sharma's analysis. In Nagaland, the two regional parties in the state, the Nagaland Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and Naga People's Front (NPF), are inching closer towards merger.
"The BJP's Manipur strategy has irked its regional partner, the NDPP in Nagaland and the National People's Party (NPP) in Meghalaya. The two chief ministers, Neiphiu Rio (of Nagaland) and Conrad Sangma (of Meghalaya), now have to ensure their respective survival. The big brother approach of the Congress had its pitfalls, and now the BJP is going the same way," Ratnadeep Gupta, a Guwahati-based social worker, says.
'Anti-BJPism' and 'anti-Congressism' in Meghalaya
The effort to distance from the Congress pervades in several states. In Andhra Pradesh, the ruling YSR Congress Party baulks at aligning with its parent party. In Telangana, the regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is more than a potent challenger to the BJP and the Congress.
In Telangana, N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party gambled by aligning with the Congress to fight K Chandrasekhar Rao-led TRS. The voters did not favour the move. The Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal not aligning with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh has its echo in parts of the North East.
In Meghalaya, former Congress chief minister Mukul Sangma, a popular mass leader in the Tura Hills, quit the grand old party and joined Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress last year. Sources close to him say his feedback from the ground was that the Congress would be decimated in next year's Assembly polls, due in February 2023. Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, also from the Tura region, leads the National People's Party (NPP). His sister Agatha Sangma is a Lok Sabha member from the area. In other words, the Tura region is all set for a fight between two Garo sons of the soil - regional heavyweights Mukul Sangma and Conrad Sangma.
That is not all. Five Congress legislators, all from the Khasi tribe from the Shillong region, have now deserted the Congress and decided to back Conrad Sangma's government. In effect, Conrad Sangma is preparing for a life without the BJP's patronage.
In Manipur, Conrad Sangma's party, the NPP, had backed the BJP in 2017 when the latter needed the support. It helped the BJP come to power. But now, the NPP and another regional party in Manipur, the Naga People's Front (NPF), have been shunned by the saffron outfit. Hence, Conrad Sangma is preparing to contest the polls either alone or with another regional party, the United Democratic Party (UDP).
In all likelihood, the NPP's alliance with the BJP could end sooner than later. Of the two BJP MLAs in Meghalaya, one is a minister in his government, and so the backing of five Congress deserters gives Conrad Sangma the elbow room to outmanoeuvre the BJP.
On the other hand, Meghalaya Congress says those who quit Congress will "regret" their decision. "This desertion is a blessing in disguise. The party is rid of the deadwood and will focus on fresh faces. We have some educated youngsters to join and work according to the Congress principles," Meghalaya Congress general secretary Sanjay Das said.
The regional identity politics in the North East has a history of survival of the fittest. But there have been a few instances of 'fair weather friends' too. In 1996, as the Congress lost power at the Centre to the United Front, a conglomeration of regional parties led by the Janata Dal, Congress veteran Gegong Apang quit the Congress and floated his regional party, the Arunachal Congress.
But in 1999, the Congress returned to power when Mukut Mithi split the Arunachal Congress and merged his party with the Congress. It was a grand show and a matter of immense personal satisfaction for Sonia Gandhi. She had deputed senior leaders such as S C Jamir, P A Sangma and Ambika Soni to attend the merger rally in Itanagar.
The case of Nagaland
The politics of regionalism will have more meaning in Nagaland than in other North Eastern states.
A key NDPP leader in Nagaland says the future of the NPF-NDPP merger is linked to the BJP's fate in the ongoing polls in Uttar Pradesh and, to an extent, in Manipur. "If the BJP does very well in UP and Manipur, the PM could be expected to push the Naga rebel groups to ink a final peace pact," says the NDPP leader.
The Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs), led by former rebel leader N Kitovi Zhimomi, await a signing ceremony, which could change the dynamics of Nagaland politics. The BJP leaders in Delhi also feel if the peace deal is through, the saffron party will get significant mileage in Nagaland.
The Congress is already a marginalised force in Nagaland where it gave long-lasting veterans such as S C Jamir and Hokishe Sema. In the 2018 Assembly polls, the Congress could not get candidates for all 60 constituencies of the state, and now it has no presence in the state legislature.
The onus will be on current Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio and T R Zeliang, his former compatriot and a former chief minister and NPF leader, to save Nagaland's regional identity. But we also need to remember that parochialism is often mistaken as a genuine crusade for upholding tribal pride.
(The writer is a New Delhi based journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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