Just days remain before the Election Commission announces the Bihar Assembly elections' schedule. These polls will serve as a harbinger of the campaigning to come, at least in the short and medium terms. Given that the pandemic has touched every aspect of human activity, these elections to 243 Vidhan Sabha seats will obviously have a different feel to it, for politicians, voters, as well as bystanders. Undoubtedly, the nature of media coverage too shall undergo significant change.
Post lockdown, the character of politics has changed and the functioning of the three branches of governments is more restrictive. Autonomy of institutions and capacity of media too has been further affected. To ensure these developments do not become irreversible, it is essential for the electorate's voice to resound independently. This can be done only if the ruling party does not secure unfair head start and if the role of money power does not increase manifold.
In India's first post-Covid elections, there will be significant departures from the past. At the start, this exercise shall not be the proverbial 'utsav' of Indian democracy and instead of being an exercise in establishing contact, will be a campaign, mobilisation and poll by remote control. Human multitudes and traffic shall be replaced by data bytes, virtual rallies and campaign packages – deliverable as well as, effortlessly consumable on mobile handsets. Besides any other impact, this will exclude from the electoral process those without smartphones and in Bihar, penetration of this device is among lowest in India. In addition to socially and economically marginalised, the pandemic has created a new demographic group – technologically inconsequential Indians.
Factors in play
The Bihar elections have to be viewed from two prisms – first procedurally; how the task will alter for the Election Commission, thousands of personnel put at their disposal, besides political parties and candidates. Additionally, big and small public meetings organised by parties and addressed by aspirants and other politicians have to be replaced by virtual speeches and targeted publicity material. Alternatives will have to be found for door-to-door campaigning, polling-day mobilisation and booth management.
The second perspective from which this election has to be analysed is resoundingly political. This will be the first test of popularity for both the union and state governments. In assembly elections since 2014, the BJP faltered on most occasions when it was an incumbent in the state. The astoundingly enhanced mandate in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls was not followed by similarly heartening results in states. After losing power in Maharashtra and barely squeezing through in Haryana, the spectre of the party losing several states before 2024 loomed large.
Yet, despite completely giving up on reining in the spread of the coronavirus, disinclination to ramp up public health systems, near-complete hollowing out of the economy, and drawing the smoke screen over the military conflict with China, the BJP and its coalition partner, the Janata Dal (U) have valid reasons to believe that they enter this round as favourites.
This conviction gathers strength from two indicative developments. One, that Bihar's Opposition parties have explicitly or otherwise, asked for deferment of polls, citing escalating Covid-19 cases and demographic displacement prompted by floods. These parties voiced concern over potential voter apathy stemming from constant battle against the twin threats in several parts of the state. They also argued that the state administration's attention was best not diverted for conducting elections. Barring infrequent occasions when incumbents advance polls to ride a wave or capitalise on polarising developments, it is mostly the ruling party (or coalition) which looks for ruses to delay elections.
The second indication of the situation being advantageous for the NDA alliance is the spate of defections from the RJD. At the point of writing, a total of 13 lawmakers of the party had quit in the last month and joined JD(U). Pre-poll quitters are akin to bellwether politicians whose actions are indicative of people's mood. Jitin Ram Manjhi's decision to leave the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) and side up with the ruling coalition is indicative of this hawa (public sentiment).
Tech-powered contest
Opposition parties also would have preferred delay in polls because they have little domain knowledge and their coffers are barren for a technology driven campaign. This not only requires considerable domain knowledge but also deep pockets, which none in their ranks currently have. While technology has been a significant factor in elections since 2009 when SMS messages flooded inboxes, this time it is going to be the principal interface between party/leader/candidate and people. The BJP is placed advantageously because its network is already in place – recall the boast that the party can make any message, real or fake, go viral.
In every election, almost one third of voters decide their choice shortly before polls. They will have to be reached and persuaded with precision after prior identification. The yet indeterminate number of migrants with votes in the states, makes this task more challenging. With massive sections of non-aligned voters living on the edge of survival, this task will be easier for a cash-rich and largesse-distributing party. Old-style party foot-soldiers will be unequal to the task on hand. Instead, the campaign this time requires ideologically agnostic tech-savvy whiz kids who are already active in the political domain as mercenaries on lookout for easy pickings.
This makes the task of managing polls quite similar to companies developing new business plans for fresh products in an altered market. Addressing an odd virtual rally will be just the first port of call. But, does the Opposition have the wherewithal, foresight and skills to connect with every mobile device and access the encyclopaedic information of its users? Elections in India are on their way to becoming the domain of the elite, at least for the moment.
(Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is a Delhi-based journalist and author. His latest book is RSS: Icons Of The Indian Right. He has also written Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times (2013))
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.