Bihar has sounded warnings to the Congress, warnings it ought to heed before the five assembly elections in 2021 and the next general elections. The verdict from the eastern state holds multiple lessons for the Congress that impact its survival as the GOP (Grand Old Party) and call for an immediate visit to the drawing board to craft strategies and cope with a milieu vastly different from the one it is familiar with.
If the Congress does not grasp the signals, there is every chance it will lose its status as the sole national Opposition and undermine its bargaining power with the allies, present and prospective, to lead an anti-BJP formation.
‘Knocking down’ MGB
In the just-concluded elections, the Congress, a has-been in Bihar since 1989, nevertheless negotiated hard with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and extracted 70 of the 234 seats, 30 more than what it contested in the 2015 elections. Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD leader, did not want to part with more than 40 seats but he was prevailed upon by Lalu Prasad, his father, to “oblige” the Congress or risk the threat of it fighting solo and perhaps joining hands with the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) in case the post-poll scenario got muddled.
Five years back, the Congress won 27 of the 40 seats it fought; this time, it was down to 19. On the other hand, the Left spectrum, part of the RJD-helmed Mahagathbandhan (MGB), got 29 seats and won 16, with the CPI (M-L) walking away with 12. Most Bihar political observers believe the Congress knocked down the MGB although the party’s spokespersons hotly contested the charge and claimed most of the seats handed out to them were “throwaways” that the RJD and Left refused to touch.
The rationale—if it can be called that—is specious and reflects the Congress’s unwillingness to make a fight of all the seats. In an election, what is a castaway seat and what is a marquee constituency? Does the Congress expect only Rae Barelis and Wayanads to come its way? Has it lost an appetite for a good battle? It would seem so because in the last 31 years, it mostly rode on the back of a “secular” party/formation in Bihar and hoped to reap the gains when the situation looked promising.
Reasons for MIM breakthrough
A major challenge Bihar threw up was the emergence of a new form of identity politics, embodied in the success of the All India Masjlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) that registered its first breakthrough in the Hindi heartland.
The MIM hurt the MGB in the last phase of polling in the Seemanchal region, bordering West Bengal. It has a big Muslim presence. Most of all, it damaged the Congress. Tariq Anwar, the Congress general secretary, ruefully remarked that the MIM’s entry into his home state was “not an auspicious sign”.
When the Muslims of West Bengal were disillusioned with the Left Front government, they turned to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TC) as a viable option. The Sachar Committee’s minority report empirically established that the CPI(M) governments had not delivered enough to Muslims to enhance their quality of life. Reading the Sachar report became a sacrament for the minorities before the 2011 elections that first sent Mamata to power.
Playlist for Bihar
In Bihar, for decades the RJD was an alternative for the Muslims to take on the BJP as was the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. But the MIM breach into this territory – that the “secular” parties seem to take for granted – created a new social dynamic.
It showed that Muslims, who willingly submerged their identity as a religious minority with those of the backward castes and the Dalits and supported a party that represented a broad anti-BJP social coalition, are questioning their choice. Asaduddin Owaisi, the MIM president, makes no bones about whose rights and interests he stands for. His language and oratory are powerful enough to sway Muslims from the “secular” parties and root for him.
In the heartland, for some time, Muslim leaders felt that the politically and socially under-empowered castes benefitted at their expense through the “secular” parties while they got little or nothing tangible despite voting with their hearts out to keep the BJP away. They thought Muslims would be better-off going for a party that exclusively articulated and championed their rights and interests even on peril of being labelled “communal”. Owaisi repeatedly questioned the notion of “secularism” and touched a chord in the minorities.
Not just the Congress but the “secular” offshoots have become increasingly defensive about speaking up for Muslims in a post-BJP era, another reason for the community’s disenchantment. In the joust to be “as Hindu as the BJP”, Muslims feel they are the biggest losers.
Disheartening signs for Congress allies
Where does Bihar leave the Congress in relation to the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in Assam and the Left Front in West Bengal? These parties are long-term allies or prospective Congress partners. Recent history can’t be heartening for any of them. In the 2016 polls, the Congress fought on 41 seats and won only 8 in Tamil Nadu, this when the DMK looked like it was on a winning spree. The DMK won 88 of the 180 seats it contested but the Congress brought down the alliance, giving the J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK an unprecedented second tenure because ruling parties are almost always voted out in the state.
In Assam, in the 2016 polls, in the 126-member assembly, the Congress contested 122 seats and won 26, while the AIUDF fought on 74 seats and won 13. Recently, the Assam Congress proposed having an alliance with the AIUDF that has a base in the minority-dominated, Bengali-speaking Barak Valley, historically a Congress stronghold. The idea was obviously to keep the Muslim votes together.
It has run into problems. The BJP resurrected the charge of the Congress being out to “appease” the minorities among Assamese and Bengali Hindus. The AIUDF head, Badruddin Ajmal, is a red rag to the Hindus because he’s perceived as a fundamentalist. Owaisi declared his intent to fight the Assam polls on his own, a spectre that can’t please the Congress because its effort to consolidate the Muslim votes might come unstuck and trigger a round of competitive minority fundamentalism. Bihar has caused a churn within the Congress
(Radhika Ramaseshan is a Delhi-based political analyst and columnist)
The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.